Maiden America 5.28.21
By the Hooptie Handicapper
Email: hooptiehandicapper@gmail.com
Brought to you by Hoop Tea
Today we have more two year old racing. One is from Belmont Park and two are from Churchill Downs.
Belmont Race 1 - $90K Maiden Special Weight
2yo fillies racing five furlongs on turf.
There is only one entrant with good breeze figs and good workouts. The other two, have had OK works.
While at the spring auction in Ocala this year, a gentleman from our group and I walked upstairs. Out of the corner of my eye, I saw her crushing the stretch. I tapped him and we watched her run out. When she concluded her breeze, we both looked at each other and simultaneously said "Holy sh**."
She is Big. She is fast. She is powerful, has excellent conformation and her name is Anna And Mia. She did that breeze at Ocala in almost record time of 9.4 for a furlong. Subsequently purchased for $160K, she was sent to the Patron Saint of two year old horses – Saint Wesley…Ward, that is. She has put in seven works leading up to this debut. Two noteworthy workouts are :48.8 and :34.6, so she is well schooled and should break to the lead. Her sire, Cupid is a black type winner of $1.7M and her dam, Miss Lederhosen went 12:3-1-2. Irad Ortiz is on board and together with Saint Wesley, they are a 25% proposition.
Running a breeze in 10.1 at the same Ocala sale, this Munnings filly, #6 Painters N Poets (6/5) is the morning line favorite. Things were abuzz when the gavel came down on this filly and it reached $450K. Munnings has sired 766 foals, 521 of those were starters and there are 46 black type winners from that group. Her dam, Burns Turn was 21/4-6-1. She has two noteworthy gate works - :48.8 and :35.4. Look for her to get on the lead as well.
Pure white beauty, #6 Witch Of Love (12/1), turned many heads at her breeze in Ocala.
Anchor Down, her sire, another black type winner of $734K; his first foals are 3yo’s running this year. Zero of those five have won at first asking. Witch Of Love is her dam's first foal. She put on a good Group 2 breeze; however, her workouts have been pedestrian at best. She might just be one of those horses who is going to be better at game day than practice.
Anna And Mia is my choice in this race.
Editor's note: Anna And Mia scratched.
Churchill Downs Race 3 - $100K Maiden Special Weight
2yo fillies going 5.5 furlongs
#7 Sandstone (4/1) may take this based on lineage. This Kenny McPeek trainee is a $165K KEE SEP YRLNG sale filly out of black type winner Street Sense. What makes her most interesting is her mom, Seattle Shimmer. Now, Seattle Shimmer never raced, however, of her eight foals, five of them have won at first asking. An incredible 63%. Her last two workouts have both been from the gate and clocked :48.2 and :48 respectively. McPeek also has #1 Behave Virginia (6/1) today and her last three works have been right along the above mentioned stablemate, Sandstone. Noting that they both achieved the exact same workout times, it would not surprise me to see these two chasing each other from the get-go. #4 Dutch Clover (4/1) has a race under her belt at this track and distance. In that race, she went off at 8/1 odds, got off to a slow start and ran rank at the top of the stretch. She did manage to collect the 4th place check for that. She has the benefit of one race experience and has two freshenings since – both 4-furlong works in :48. Look for improvement today. My choice today is #2, Bode By You (7/2). Our records indicate that horses who stick with racing in the msw ranks, hit 12/77 or 16% in their fourth race. Further research suggests that horses who have taken a speed figure hit in their third race, will show a larger improvement than it has performed in the previous two in their fourth race.
Churchill Race 5 - $52K Maiden Special Weight
2yo’s that sold or RNA for $45K or less auction (hence the reduced purse)
5 furlongs for this race
This race can actually be more interesting to bet on.
#5 Trebbiano (4/1) ran in the $100K msw ranks last out on May 9 over the same track and distance. He led at the top of the stretch and got collared late. That race was in the slop and he put up an 84 Equibase figure. His first race was at Keeneland back in mid-April where he went off at low odds and ran evenly, coming in 5th place. Third time starters are not the favorite way for me to bet, yet in his last, watching him wrest control to an unadulterated first place at the top of the stretch, then having a speed duel with the ultimate winner, speaks volumes to me. #1 Aquitania Arrival (5/1) just posted a :47.8 breeze from the gate six days ago, an excellent prep sign. Waving, her dam, has two foals and one of them won at first asking. #7 Over It (6/1) went off as second favorite when she debuted on May 7. She managed to shut down a few horses in the lane closing to a third place finish. That was a $50K maiden claimer and today she steps up a couple of notches. Pass. #8 Conagher (3/1) debuted at 12/1 on April 23 at Keeneland. In that race, he fooled quite a lot of people, closing on the eventual winner to within 2 lengths, putting up a strong 84 Equibase score. Make note of the fact that this happened after he hopped at the start and came five wide into the stretch. Recent work of :48.2 show’s he is ready for Round II. #3 Climb And Maintain is another McPeek trainee who will surprise some people today.
Score Avg High SLength Avg Group
I am going with Trebbiano and his experience
Mirth ‘n Merriment – Race 2 GP
Onefineday – Race 5 GG
Admiral Returns – 7th at AP (good price for this one)
Happy Hunting 😊