Maiden America Friday Horse Racing: RT, the Hooptie Handicapper, heads to Churchill Downs for races 1, 2, 3
Maiden America 5.07.21
Hooptie Handicapper
Email hooptiehandicapper@gmail.com
Lost with two bad trips yesterday and made one bad choice. Maximum Risk just about clipped heels on the backstretch with Golden Spoke and was pulled back, then showed good late kick. He is one to put in your virtual barn. Knowing that a Turfway horse would not win the 4th, I went with Wrinkle Her Nose and she wrinkled…. everywhere. My bad. In the 7th, Florent Geroux lost the reign on Pettigo Girl, then she had to be hard checked at the top of the stretch.
Those are the breaks of the game. Some days the ball just does not roll your way.
Churchill Downs Race 1 - $50K Maiden Claimers
2yo’s running 4.5 furlongs
#1 Fleet Kiss (8/1)
#2 Over It (2/1)
#5 Old Town Road (6/5)
The bumping and turmoil at the gate, traffic jams, kickback, and the jitters of first Lasix, horses learn a lot in their first race. In the case of Fleet Kiss, he is going into his second race, gets second Lasix, and had a recent workout at Belterra Park in :48.8 a week ago. A :48.8 at heavy Belterra Park equates to a faster time at Churchill and with his one race experience, look for Miguel Mena to take him straight out to the front. Over It has increasingly improving gate works, a 14% winning trainer with first timers, and his sire Tiznow, crushed his rivals in his first race. If you take away a 34% winning trainer with first time starters, and a 67% trainer/jockey winning combination, Old Town Hall, based on his pedestrian works, you must ask, would this horse be the favorite if those factors were not in play? He did complete a :47.8 gate work at Keeneland on April 10, yet I feel this suspect as the track was playing fast for a stretch during that time.
Race 2 - $50K Maiden Claimers
2yo fillies going 4.5 furlongs
#3 Tough Enough (15/1)
#6 Guajira (7/5)
#9 Ding Ding (5/2)
#1 Tapit Doux (8/1)
Tough Enough caught my attention with her 1:01.4 breeze from the gate. Her shorter workouts have been marginal and that struck a chord, thinking she gets better the longer she’s running. Now would be the time to hang with Wesley Ward and #6 Guajira. Since early speed typically makes the difference in maiden races, she just hit one out of the park while training - :34.6 out of the gate. Toss in first time Lasix and she will be on the lead quickly. Ding Ding has had the benefit of one race where she set the pace, came around the turn and flattened out in the stretch. Today she retains the same jockey and had a freshening on May 1. She'll be a tough out. Tapit Doux’s sire, Bal A Bali, was horse of the year in Brazil and a black type winner domestically. She just drilled a :47.4 from the gate. Given her inside draw, you can make the presumption that the jockey will avoid getting pinned in and get her out to the lead asap.
Race 3 - $20K Maiden Claiming
3yo fillies and mares going six furlongs
#5 Pictorial (5/2)
#1 Paulas Game (6/1)
#2 Cardioversion (6/1)
Pictorial, the daughter of Liam’s Map, drops down to a level that she can handle. Her Equibase numbers are good, yet her running lines are ka ka. Potential? Yes. Losing habits? Yes. Will she win today? Who knows? Paulas Game is a Calumet Farm bred daughter of Raison d’Etat and granddaughter of Point Given. She had one race to date, showing good early speed until Gerardo Coralles, her jockey again today, lost his whip in the stretch. She ended up running out of gas and ran 6th place. Cardioversion, a daughter of Lookin At Lucky, is third off the layoff and after seven attempts, she finally decided to race last time out. Bumped at the start, pulled up and suddenly behind by six lengths, she took a rail trip and swung in and out of traffic down the stretch, getting up for third. She ended up running that stretch drive in .07.3, which will be enough to pass any of these by if she gets a clean trip.
That a wrap for this week.
Happy Hunting 😊