Maiden America Thursday at Churchill Downs: RT, the Hooptie Handicapper, picks the 2nd, 4th and 7th races
RT's first post is 5:29 pm EDT.
Maiden America 5.06.21
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We fared better yesterday with two out of four winners. When I flipped over to watch Charlie Mo in the 7th, his odds plunged to 1/5 and that early money action signaled that somebody knows something, or the public money viewed the race the same as I, or both. Regardless, he won going away.
Short on time today, so three quick picks from Churchill. The weather in my hometown city of Louisville should be sunny and in the 60s.
Race 2 - $10K Maiden Claimers
3yo’s↑ running six furlongs
Frequently handicapping races at this level, I use ‘they have dropped down to this level, they've already had their chances, why haven't they won yet’ technique. That said, I am going to take a shot on a Hard Spun colt/first time starter, #3 Maximum Risk (10/1). He has been working lights out both in and out of the gate for trainer Wayne Catalano. Hard Spun won convincingly in his first four races and his dam, Private Estate, scored in her first attempt.
Race 4 - $10K Maiden Claimers
3yo’s↑ fillies and mares racing 8.25 furlongs
There is going to be a lot of speed in this race. We are going to look for a closer and #5 Teller To Sing (5/2) has taken a lot of money two her last four races. Unfortunately, her best result has been third place, closing from 7th to 3rd at Turfway. That type of move is the inverse of what we are looking for when switching from synthetic to dirt. As a matter of fact, five of the nine horses last raced at Turfway. It is easier getting a mile-and-a-16th on synthetic that it is on dirt, so I am going to go with Colby Hernandez on #7 Wrinkles Your Nose (8/1). She's had the most recent race and it was at CD, taking a class drop, and should have that late push to get it done.
Race 7 - $50K Maiden Claimers
3yo’s↑ fillies and mares running one mile.
Shug’s #3 Temper Mint Twist (5/2) likely will see quite a bit of tote board action because of Shug and she is dropping in for a tag. #7 Seascape (2/1) with Tyler Gaffalione riding and Dallas Stewart training, will also see a lot of action. She ran a great race on April 14, setting the pace before tiring in the stretch. However, that was in the slop and the fractions were terribly slow. My choice is the filly out of Gemologist, #6 Pettigo Girl (6/1), who last (April 22) ran a similar style race as the favorite, yet at a quicker pace and scoring a higher Equibase figure. Her excellent form is emerging, so she is a live play.
Happy Hunting 😊