A View from the Bottom #7: RT's horses to watch from Tampa Bay Downs, Delta Downs, Will Rogers Downs, Oaklawn
Races from April 12-April 15, 2021.
A VIEW FROM THE BOTTOM
16 April 2021 Edition 7
Follow me @RtsSpot
Today, let’s take a quick peek at 3rd time starter stats. Bear in mind, these are horses that have yet to break their maiden, and are racing in their third race, still in maiden company. Overall, we have 695 horses recorded that have completed their third race. Of those, just 73 have won. That’s 10%, so typically not a good prop. The primary cause to this could be third Lasix, or, as BB King sang, “The Thrill is Gone.”
Breaking the numbers down:
13% - 18/134 were msw to msw
7% - 5/68 from msw to mcl
12% - 25/213 from mcl to mcl with 10 of the 25 winners taking a class drop
There have been three ways that I have used this to my advantage.
1) Only betting it when a 2nd time starter has an overwhelmingly better last Equibase number
2) Using the second time starter, who is the favorite or has low odds, as my X horse in a trifecta. The x horse is the one that you believe will come in the money yet will not win. The sequence goes like this, taking the lowest odds horse and making it c:
This has been quite effective for me and I’ve hit some long bombers.
3) When the 2nd time starter is lowering from mcl to mcl and has a strong last Equibase number.
Starting with the best first is the oddest stretch run that you may ever see. Beginning at the top of this stretch, everything appears normal. The #11, Pink Shoelaces, a 5/2 favorite, appears to be poised to take the race. And then it happened. Out of the blue, she decided that running over to the right side was the way to go and kaboom, she bolted. She got straightened out and bolted right again past the center of the track. Wilmar Garcia, in a panic, got her on the right course, and as you can see, she just misses. In the interim, while Pink Shoelaces was swerving in and out, #9 Naval Wave entered the stretch five lengths back, was running green as well, pulling to the right. Alonso Quinonez righted her, caught one of the opening gaps made by Pink Shoelaces, and took Naval Wave through; showing a nice burst. The winner, #6 Smooth Dancer sat this cushy rail trip and would have never won without that awkwardness. If you had Smooth Dancer, congratulations on cashing your $2 ticket in exchange for the $146.00 return. I will be watching for Pink Shoelaces and Naval Wave in their next outings.
Next on the ticket is the first race from Delta Downs on Monday April 13. This was a $5K Claimer for fillies and mares N2L. I bet this race and didn't care for the favorite #7 Miss Jamie, who, as you see, ran second. I did end up betting the ultimate winner, Mallory’s Home to a nice payday. However, Miss Jamie appears to have been one of those wink wink, nod nod deals where the jockey was instructed to go safely and do not push it because she is being claimed and we want her coming out in good order. Because of her warrior spirit, Miss Jamie would have no part of that instruction. Although unnecessary, she gave a terrific accounting of herself. The true winner of this race was Daniel Ray Landry, the man who claimed her in what was the deal of the week. For $5K, he got a 4yo filly sired by $4.3M winner Street Sense with her granddad being Bluegrass Cat, winner of the Haskell, 2nd in the Belmont and 2nd in the Travers.
It just wouldn't seem like a regular hooptie week without showing you a race from Will Rogers Downs. This was a $19.8K maiden special weight, one mile route for 3yo fillies. #4 Bella Blu was the even money favorite and, for this level, was impressive in winning. She ran in the two path the entire race until she got the stretch, kicked it into gear, and crushed it down the rail. During the entire race, not once did Alfredo Triana go to the whip with her. She simply won that race with ease.
By any stretch of the imagination. Yesterday's first race at Oaklawn Park was not a hooptie race yet had an interesting event that is worth noting. The #5 Tapalong was ridden by Francisco Arietta. Francisco got up on the leader smartly and in the backstretch, let every horse in the field pass him. As the saying goes, “nothing good ever comes of it when your horse is passed on the backstretch,” but as they entered the stretch, Tapalong started to breathe new life. He was making a run for it and then tried to prop, which is when a horse decides to abruptly stop. Francisco, being the excellent jockey that he is, would not allow that to happen and got his head back in the game and in the final paces, put on an excellent burst of energy to run 5th. If Arietta gets this mount again, look for a much improved effort.
Until next time, have a fun weekend. 😊