Sunday Horse Racing: RT picks the Early Pick 5 at Oaklawn
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Oaklawn Early Pick 5
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Recapping yesterday, Navy Seal did as expected and got the win at Oaklawn as the favorite and paying $5.60. In the third race at Keeneland, I posted a Brazilian shipper named Assembly Point before checking the weather. Unfortunately, it was an off track and I never bet off tracks. I hope you passed on this as well. In the final choice at Oaklawn, My Honey's Perfect scratched, so it was a no play. That was a trainer scratch by Robertino Diodoro, which probably means he didn't have a chance against the heavy favorite, so I put him in my virtual stable and look for his next race. For the Arkansas Derby, I had just come off a $45 winner at Santa Anita and let it roll on Asmussen’s Super Stock. As predicted here, he won and paid $26.40.
Oaklawn Race 1 - $20K Arkansas bred claimers
Fillies and mares 3yo’s↑ going six furlongs
Looking like a dead nut underlay/false favorite is #5 Proud Victoria (5/2). Yes, she is third off layoff and yes, she is dropping in for a tag in this race. However, she has yet to be competitive in her last four races, losing by an accumulated total of 41 lengths. #4 Many Sweet Treats (2/1) appears to be the one to beat, yet she seems to do her best work in the mud. Additionally, coming out of her last race, the winner, Zanshoes, ran a very dull effort in her last. She is certainly one to keep on your ticket, however, depending on the expense that you run up, it may not be worth it. #3 Savedbyanangel (9/2) is the one of keen interest to me. She is third off the layoff and in her last showed some good early speed before tiring. A lover of Oaklawn, she is 11/2-1-2 for $136K and 12/2-1-2 for $136K at the distance. #6 Joy In The Journey (3/1) is another to include in your ticket. She too is hitting her third off the layoff and is taking a drop in class. She has shown solid early jump and has a terrific record at Oaklawn going 10/2-2-0 for $114K and 10/2-1-1 for $108K at the distance. If finances permit, I will throw in #2 Lucky Road (20/1) who is coming out of a key race.
3-6 maybe 4 & 2
Oaklawn Race 2 - $25K Maiden Claimers
3yo’s↑ fillies and mares racing one mile
#2 Call Dish (4/1) just missed by a neck at this level a month ago and takes another stab after trying the msw ranks during her 3yo campaign. The added distance will be of benefit. #4 Easy Silence (9/2) posted solid numbers during her two year old campaign, was moved to Oaklawn and was last seen on January 24th in an $82K msw. Putting in a very dull effort, she has been on the bench since that time. As we saw with Super Stock yesterday in the Arkansas Derby, the differences between a 2 year old racing and having time off, then coming back for its three year old season is dramatic. The maturity level is exponential. You can see that in this Constitution fillys’ workouts - 1:01 on April 2nd, :48 on March 21st and a :48 in late January. #5 Faded Memories (5/1) is a crapshoot that I'm not willing to take. Her last three races have put up excellent numbers, yet it has been on turf. This is a big ask for a young horse to transition from a turf route to a dirt route as turf routes are a lot easier on the horse. #6 Chewy Chewy Good (7/2) was claimed two back, has showed great early speed, but she’s chewy, chewy, chewing off too much today. You can't blame the connections, can you? They paid $10K for her, collected a check for 2nd place last time and now is going to try to get $25,000. Sometimes you just have to say wtf..
Oaklawn Race 3 - $30K Claimers N3L
3yo’s↑ going six furlongs
There are three worth mentioning and one longshot. #7 Energizer (9/2) #8 Twirling Mamba (7/2) and #4 General Trev (5/2). Given his record at Oaklawn, 4/2-2-0 for $90K, my preference is with General Trev. To his credit, Energizer has taken a butt whipping by one heck of a lot tougher horses than the ones racing in this one. His record of 3-0-0-1 for only $9K is not reflective of his ability and whether he desires this track. It does reflect whom he has raced against. Getting Lasix for the first time is Twirling Mamba. It does make you wonder whether he bled last out. He's a speed horse coming from a synthetic track and with the addition of Lasix, I like this horse today. He's put on a solid campaign so far as a lightly raced 3 year old. It would come as no surprise for this Twirling Candy colt to blast out to the lead and not be caught. Finally, my price horse is #5 Hidden Promise (20/1) who is first off the claim for trainer John Cox, A 50% proposition.
Oaklawn Race 4 - $12.5K Starter Allowance N$2
Fillies and mares 3yo’s↑ going 8.25 furlongs
I keep looking for a race to single trying to keep the price down and I cannot seem to shake either #2 Lulumaru (5/2) or the shipper #3 Bee Bit (5/1). Both enter this race in peak form. With Lulumaru having a race over the track and trainer Robertino Diodoro clipping along at 29% he gets a slight nod.
2 w/possibly 3
Oaklawn Race 5 - $30K Maiden Claimers
3yo fillies racing 5.5 furlongs
Running a backtest on maidens that were disqualified and how they fared in their next race, came up with a 21% proposition. #5 Wrapper Rule (2/1) fits this category and that was on turf at the Fair Grounds on March 28. This filly out of Candy Ride has run well on either turf or dirt, so look for her to be a mitigating factor. #8 Gravitron (3/1) is third off the layoff, claimed two back, and has posted excellent numbers. She gets at class drop today and could take this as well. She has shown good early speed and the cutback of 1/2 furlong will be more than welcome.
3-6/2-4/7-8-4-5/2/5-8 is $12
3-6/2-4/7-8-4-5/2-3/5-8 is $32
Adding 2 & 4 in Race 1 is $64