Friday Horse Racing from Keeneland: God's Tipster picks the 1st, 4th, 9th & 10th races, with a Grade 3 stakes
Kentucky weather is expected to be sunny and cool.
Thursday’s Recap from Gulfstream Park:
Race 2: 3rd@ 2.00-1
Race 3: 5th@ 21.00-1
Race 4: 4th@ 2.50-1
A third, a fourth and a fifth place finish to kick off the month of April and that’s no April Fool’s joke. Sososubtle ranged up on the turn in Race 2 and battled into the stretch before giving way. In Race 3, Farm Strong closed strongly but it was too little, too late finishing 5th at 21-1 and in Race 4, Happy Champ seized the lead to start but offered no fight when challenged by Enano Astray finishing a well beaten 4th to that one.
I’m EXCITED to kick off the Keeneland spring meet which is where we’ll head for Friday’s races. We expect fast and firm conditions beneath sunny skies and chilly temperatures in Lexington, Kentucky for the Friday card. We handicapped 7 races which is rare for a Friday.
Let’s take a look:
Race 1: Dream Fly - 2 pts win - BEST BET
We have our first 2-year-old race of the year and trainer, Wesley Ward excels in these types of events winning with a remarkable 47% of first time starters in these maiden sprint races here at Keeneland over the last 5 years (26 for 55). Sire, American Pharoah wins with 12% of his debut runners but Ward has top rider, Joel Rosario riding this one and looks well meant. Ward bred and owns this runner and he does well with these types.
Race 4: Tiz Splendid News - 1 pt win
Fillies race 7 furlongs in this classy allowance race and Carribean Caper will likely take most of the money based on her dominant debut score where she won by 8 lengths at Fair Grounds back in February. She didn’t face much pressure that day and drew away convincingly. Tiz Splendid News also has a dominating maiden score to her credit, albeit from last October. She has also lost two close decisions - once on debut vs. boys on turf and another in a stakes race where she lost by a head. Wesley Ward trains and we know he points his horses for this particular meet. She’s supposedly been working with Ward’s Like the King - who’s likely headed to the Kentucky Derby after winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks (yes, spelled like a 🥩 steak). I think she sits the trip off the favorite and imposes her will in the stretch.
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Race 9: Breadman - 1 pt win
Three year olds run in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes and Scarlett Sky and Fire at Will will take the bulk of the money here and may very well be best, but at 9/5 on those I’m looking elsewhere. Breadman interests me. He won his debut in impressive fashion in the fall at Belmont Park - going off favored in a field of 10. He won like a horse that had already raced before and that professionalism motivated his connections to try him on dirt in the Sleepy Hollow where he finished third behind two next out winners, including Brooklyn Strong, who won the Remsen. Toss his most recent turf start where he was eliminated at the start and you’ve got a well bred horse with potential at high odds. Trainer John Terranova hasn’t started any runners at Keeneland yet but when he teams with jockey, Luis Saez in turf routes they’ve won 17% of races together with an in the money percentage of 63% in 24 starts. Bombs away!
Race 10: Chione - 1 pt win
Maiden fillies close out our card running a mile and a sixteenth and our selection, Chione ships over from the Fair Grounds for trainer Cherie DeVaux who’s winning at 21% for the year with 43 starters. Chione got blasted in her debut - running 2nd, 10 lengths behind Euphoric who won her next start by 5 lengths. She stretches out here and is bred for distance being a half sister to marathon specialist, Hard Aces. She appears to have the best early speed and could prove tough to run down in the lane.
Best of luck 🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀 to all our members playing Friday’s races from Keeneland.