RT picks the 1st, 4th and 9th Maiden races at Gulfstream Park and likes two longshots
First post is 12:10 pm EDT.
Maiden America 3.28.2021
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Today we are covering three races - the first, fourth, and ninth, from Gulfstream Park. It just so happens that all three of these are on turf.
Before delving in, our studies have shown that horses who start off in their debut at a mile or greater, are well intended by their trainer, in good condition, and pose a solid threat to the more experienced entrants. Secondarily, horses who started off in their first race at a sprinting distance, then moved to a route, including one-turn miles, in their second race, are to be closely scrutinized. This is an excellent tool for you to remember and you will see why.
Race 1 - $16K Maiden Claiming
3yo fillies going 8.25 furlongs on turf
#4 Belle Elle (8/1) after two consecutive open maiden races, they are dropping her down to this lower level? She meets all the qualifications for the fourth race on the card, a $50,000 claimer, yet why aren't they in that? For lack of a better term, this seems like a Todd Pletcher throw away case and smacks of desperation. #2 Jazzy T (5/1) is a first time starter out of the Rohan Crichton barn. Crichton is a 38% winner this meet and is 19% with first time starters. A daughter of Verrazano, who was an unequivocal monster who won $1.8M in just thirteen races. Her workouts are about as expected from this level. Her mom, Very Very, has had five foals and none of them have won at first asking. Oddly enough, none of the five have even come back and run a second race. The good news is Irad Ortiz is in the irons and with him, you know you are going to get a competitive ride. #1 Keitany (2/1) is dropping from the $50K level to today's race. She gets a positive jockey change today to Edwin Gonzalez, the leading rider from Penn National. For those of you who follow Penn National, you know he is a very capable jockey. A Kentucky bred filly out of Cairo Prince, she started off at six and a half furlongs and gave a poor effort, albeit in the slop, and was benched for a couple of months. She returned to the turf to a mile & 1/16th race. She gave a great showing, having taken the lead, passed horses, and eventually tired in the stretch. The two races since that time have been pedestrian. It is difficult to say where things have gone awry, but I would venture to guess that the connections for her feel that this kind of class drop is warranted. It is a tough read on her because she has put up big Equibase numbers, yet has not been competitive of late. #7 Time Sensitive (5/2) has raced 7 races so far. Starting off at five-and-a-half furlongs, she then moved up to one mile and has raced at that distance since. She started off in the claiming ranks and was claimed in October after her third race. Her current trainer moved her to open company and then back down to claiming. Today she gets a positive jockey switch to Tyler Gaffalione. Considering that she tired in every one of her races after being on the front end, Tyler is going to rate her better today. She will be a factor and it would not surprise if she won. The choice today is #5 Dora Princella (15/1) a second time starter getting second time Lasix. The daughter out of Breeders' Cup mile winner Tourist, who was 14/6-2-3 for $2.1M on turf, she made her debut on Feb. 8, and has not been seen since. In that race she had gate trouble, a symptom of first time Lasix, and never really recovered from that. She put up a 68 Equibase number. Our charts are telling us that at this level, she will have a 16 point pickup. That puts her at 84. None of these horses have ever raced at that number. Recently, she has had two particularly good workouts of :49 each with the dogs up. 15/1 is an excellent price and hopefully is stays there or goes higher.
Race 4 - $50K Maiden Claiming
3yo fillies going one mile on turf
Given what we have learned about how connections start their horses off in terms of distance and surface, this race will eliminate several horses to include #9 Take Me As I Am (5/2), #8 Magical Charm (12/1), #2 Mia At Midnight (30/1), #7 Vintage Style (5/1) and the big favorite #5 Blue Kentucky Girl (7/5) with trepidation. Because her debut was at 8.25 furlongs in September and she was put away for the winter, Kentucky Girl could be viewed with her five-and-a-half furlongs debut this year to be the jumping off point. That is a judgment call. As we all know, the combination of Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz is deadly, so this entry is not to be taken out of your exotic bets. #1 Check Twice (20/1) is a debut filly from the barn of Antonio Sano. Her mom, Czechers, won in her debut, so with this Union Rags filly, you will either get feast or famine. There are breeze figs for her, and she tested out into a Group 3. Given our limited amount of Group 3 first time starters, the data shows that it is a 33% win prop. Be mindful that this is a small sample size. #3 American Classic (6/1) comes from the successful breeders Gary and Mary West. She is a daughter from Giants Causeway, a monster who throttled his competition in his first four races. A brief career for Giant’s Causeway, he ended up with a stunning turf record of 12/9-3-0 for $2.2M. So, yes, this filly is bred for the distance and bred for the surface. She is trained by Kelly Breen, an excellent first time trainer as we found out last weekend with Latin Casino. She will be in the mix today. The choice today is #6 Look What I Found (15/1). She put up a 73 Equibase number in her first start just three weeks ago. At this level, you can expect a 20 to 22 point pick up in the second start, therefore, making a 93 to 95 Equibase figure feasible. None of the experienced horses in this race will even come close to that number today. The first timers will not get it done either. That is a big ask. Therefore, with her first racing/learning experience just 22 days ago, she should get this done.
Race 9 - $55K Maiden Special Weight
3yo’s going one mile on turf
#1 Spotters Hill (8/5) ran on Feb. 28, performed well, and garnered an 86 Equibase number at first asking. She sat a perfect rail trip and was game for the first half of the stretch before giving way. She will be tough to beat today. There is one piece of this that is bothersome; she just had a bullet :35.8 workout and if you are trying to teach a speed horse not to be a speed horse, having it blast off like that from the onset is not the way to go. Not that I question Bill Mott because it could have been done for conditioning purposes, yet it just does not make sense why you would not work her longer. #11 Landbiscuit (20/1) gave an exemplary showing in his debut last month, digging in and fighting like a pit bull to only get nosed. Today he moves up in class and if this son of Orb gets near at the end, he will prevail . . . and he has a shot with the possibility of a speed duel melting the pace today. One reason this is a good betting race is because Irad does not have his brother to help him. The world of Twitter, as well as myself, have been astounded at the amount of antics those two have gotten away with this meet, e.g.; race 5 yesterday when Irad stood completely upright in the irons down the stretch on Town Classic, going to the whip only once while by appearance, holding back the reins with his left hand, forcing the horse to stick its head way up and allowing his brother's horse, Basin, the chance to pull away. The optics of it were egregiously flagrant. That said, he is on the #7 Seizing The Dream (5/1) and getting a cut back in distance. His first race was in August at Saratoga and he performed well. He was benched since and ran last on Jan. 30. Being a non-proponent of third time maiden starters, he did race seven months ago in his two-year-old season for his debut. Horses who race in their two-year-old season typically become better racehorses. Given the fact Irad is on him and getting second time Lasix, my wallet will prevail over my righteousness and I will include him in some sort of wager and perhaps a win bet. Looking for improvement out of #5 My Sea Cottage (9/2), will be tough to do. His biggest improvement came in his last race and the chances are likely that he will either bounce or conclude the same way. The positive change of jockey to Tyler Gaffalione is a pickup, so, he will go in a trifecta/super wager. #10 Project Thunder (8/1) is a twice tested breeze figs colt out of Union Rags jumping from a Group 3 in April to a Group 1 in May; setting the record for that day in May with a 73/73. Fetching $210K at Fasig, his works have been outstanding, his trainer, Bill Mott, is 17% with first timers and 25% of late. If he is anything like his daddy, he is best near the lead pressing and hammering the stretch.
The bets – Irad, 2nd Lasix and if he stays near 5/1, Seizing The Dream is a go. Spotters Hill and Project Thunder will round out the exacta box and toss in My Sea Cottage to make a trifecta combination.
Until next time
Happy Hunting 😊