Maidens In Queens 3.21.21
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It has been a while and Aqueduct was running wonky yesterday with the middle of the stretch looking like Crash Bandicoot in my kids’ game where he runs onto a green pad and it zaps him forward with warp speed.
Since this was written prior to the track updates, it is unclear who will be riding for Dylan Davis. The pile up yesterday, where he suffered a broken clavicle, looked worse for the three jockeys than the outcome. Thankfully, all are going to mend.
Race 1 - $70K Maiden Special Weight
3yo↑ NY State fillies and mares going one mile
#6 She’sfirstclass (8/1) and #4 Misspotofgold (20/1) are going to be the speed and given #6’s nine months away, expect her to give way at some point from fatigue. #4, with second Lasix could run away and hide and is worth putting in your exotic plays. The only horse in this race who has shown grit and passed horses while gaining on the leader is #1 Moon Sweeper (3/1) and she is the choice. The other four have either passed tired horses and/or never showed tenacity to get ahead.
Take Moon Sweeper
Race 4 - $80K Maiden Special Weight
3yo staties going six furlongs
Of the seven horses in this, five are first time starters which, given most first timers who have had a brisk work leading into this race vis-a-vis #6 King James (4/1) and the short blasts of #4 Iron Giant (20/1), both Chad Brown’s #2 Take A Chance (9/5) and #3 Secret Potion (2/1), a $475K, Into Mischief colt, will be tested early. Given Secret Potions proclivity to give up may not make him so tough to beat and Take A Chance, out of Munnings, a graded sprint winner, has had very vanilla works and does not seem sharp for his debut. With Secret Potion, after four chances, you wonder whether losing has become a habit. Looking for another alternate, I am leaning to long strider #5 Latin Casino (5/1), the $170K Fasig colt out of Liam’s Map. He is trained by Kelly Breen who is 16% with first timers (for those scoring at home, Brown is 18%) and both of this colts’ works from the gate have been stellar.
Score Avg Par Stride Group
Latin Casino AQU 4 66 67 76 25.99 3
Latin Casino is the choice – if Nik Juarez takes him down the center of the stretch
Race 8 - $20K Maiden Claimers
3yo↑ filles and mares going six furlongs
Can a morning line 1-2 filly be beat if her normal jockey is sidelined? You will likely see #3 Tiny Magoo’s price go up before the gate opens. There are two in this that have the chance to make a go and they are #1 Absolute Privilege (5/1) and #2 Bley (6/1). Bley is trained by RudyRod and bettors of Aqueduct know to never count this guy out. Absolute Privilege started as a state (province?) stakes runner and was never a factor. Shipped in early December, she ran a blasé ninth, rested for six weeks, moved in for a tag and took a deep stretch run to get up for second. Last out, she moved up in class and when set off in the slop, failed abysmally. Today, she drops back to a class where she has been competitive and is worth the 5/1 price, or greater.
Given the change of jockey, I am betting the field over 3 in an exacta and #1 W/P
Happy Hunting 😊