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Gulfstream Park
Race 1: Emperor’s Song - 1 pt win
We kick things off with fillies and mares sprinting on turf and the winner gets to escape the ranks of the maiden claimers. Likely favorites: Miahsolomiah and Mudslide Wicked figure to duke it out on the front end but neither has proven they have much staying power in crunch time and certainly not at low odds so we’re taking a shot with Emperor’s Song who’s making the 9th start of her career but will only be trying the turf for the third time. The first time Emperor’s Song ran on turf she put up a speed figure that fits with the best of these finishing 4th but only two lengths behind the winner. Place runner returned to win her next start. After a few subpar dirt efforts, she was put back on turf at 7 1/2 furlongs but she was checked repeatedly for the first 1/4 mile of the race. I’m giving her a long look here as a repeat of her initial turf try will make her very appealing at nice odds. Jockey upgrade to Corey Lanerie adds to the appeal.
Race 2: Ultimate Gift - 2 pts win - BEST BET
Three-year-old colts run a mile in this maiden claiming event and after viewing replays, it’s obvious that Ultimate Gift faced pace pressure last time that he’s not likely to face today. Stablemate Mutaraafeq took him to task last time out and both were overtaken by a runner who closed from the clouds. There doesn’t appear to be anyone fast enough to run with him early and the potent duo of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz is winning at a 32% clip these days. Scary indeed.
Race 4: Tiz Impressive - 1 pt win
Let’s roll again with some maiden claimers, this time we have three-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt and our selection is a first time starter. Trainer Ralph Nicks always seems to win in streaks. We’ve been keeping an eye on him lately and over the past three weeks at Gulfstream Park he’s winning at an overall rate of 33% from a sample size of 18, and 9 of those 18 have finished either 1st, 2nd or 3rd. When you drill down to maiden claimers, the win percentage hits 43% with 3 wins from 7 starters. A little over a week ago, Nicks debuted a runner named Awesome Pudding who won a maiden claiming race gate-to-wire “pudding” up an impressive speed figure for the level of 74 in the process. Well our pick - Tiz Impressive appears to have worked with that debut winner at least once putting up a faster breeze on 2/13. No other runners in here get the pulse racing so we’re siding with the hot trainer. Tomlinson figure of 366 indicate there’s some quality here. Best of luck to all our members playing races from Gulfstream Park on Thursday - James
Wednesday’s Recap from Gulfstream Park:
Race 1: 2nd@ 3.30-1
Race 3: 4th@ 6.10-1
Race 4: 4th@ 1.60-1
Race 6: 3rd@ 1.50-1
Tough start to our week as we looked home free in Race 1 when Karenville took the lead turning for home but she may have moved a bit too wide and a bit too early as Super Leggera gunned her down for the money to win by a neck. In Race 3, jockey Edward Zayas gave Sette Stelle a nice rail trip but he had no punch when it counted finishing 4th. In Race 4, our selection Baby Lion never got on track and finished a well-beaten 4th and in Race 6 we expected more from Pulling Strings who battled early for the lead but wilted in the lane. We look to get back on track Thursday at Gulfstream where we expect mild temperatures with a fast main track and a firm turf course.