Garrity picks a Dad's Hat Happy Hour of races at Aqueduct, Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Gulfstream & Fair Grounds
We’re on the cusp of a weekend that was always going to be big, but which weather will make even bigger, as the unusual cold snap forced Oaklawn Park in Arkansas to move the Southwest Stakes, a key Kentucky Derby prep, to tomorrow, where it will join the stakes-studded Fountain of Youth Stakes card at Gulfstream on a busy day that will do much to clarify the picture among 3-year-olds, the sport’s glamour division. There are many signs that spring is nigh, but our favorite one is when the Derby preps begin to get serious.
Today, however, is Friday, not Saturday, and that means it’s time for another edition of Dad’s Hat Happy Hour Handicapping. Today we have a good lineup of six races at five tracks, all of which will be run in about a half hour’s time. We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all races, so pour yourself a glass of one of the fine hand-crafted concoctions from Dad’s Hat, settle down in your easy chair, and let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 7, 4:25 pm ET
Allowance, 1 mile, Dirt, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
An evenly matched group of nine state-bred older females line up for this one-turn mile allowance at the Big A. We’re taking a shot with 4-English Breeze, a well-bred 4-year-old filly who’s been away from the races for quite a while, having last run in November of 2019. All four of her career starts were on turf, and this race is on dirt, and while the surface change and the layoff are both concerns, and while she may need a race, she simply looks better than the other entrants here. We think her class will prevail, and will bet her to win at 8-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 7, $30 to win on 4-English Breeze.
Santa Anita Park, Race 3, 4:35 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Turf, California-bred 3-Year-Old Fillies
Eight sophomore fillies bred in the Golden State line up for this maiden turf race. We like 6-Warren’s Candy Girl, and we like her even though there are a couple of things about her that we typically avoid: She’s winless in six career starts, which is not good; and she’s finished second in four of them, which typically means that a horse lacks the will to win, to get to the wire first.
We think the seventh time will be the charm for Warren’s Candy Girl this afternoon, as she catches a weak field, gets a new rider in Abel Cedillo, and gets Lasix for the first time, and has the best late-pace figures in a field that has plenty of early speed. She’ll be toward the rear early, but she should earn a trip to the winner’s circle with a strong stretch run. We will bet her to win at 2-1. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 3, $35 to win on 6-Warren’s Candy Girl.
Oaklawn Park, Race 6, 4:38 pm ET
$40,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
A deep field of ten lines up for this maiden heat in Hot Springs. We’re against the favorite, 3-Long Term Thinking, who has seven runner-up finishes in eight career starts. Maybe he will find a way to finish first here, but we see a minor placing more likely, and at a short price, we think he’s a bet-against.
We’re going with a first-time starter, and a big price, in the form of 7-Power Burst. His morning workouts show some zip, trainer Doug Anderson is good with first-time starters, and at 12-1, he is a much more attractive wagering proposition than the more logical contenders, each of whom, like the favorite, has serious question marks. We will bet Power Burst to win and to place. The bets: Oaklawn Park, Race 6, $20 to win/$10 to place on 7-Power Burst.
Gulfstream Park, Race 8, 4:44 pm ET
$35,000 Claiming, 1 mile, Turf, 3-Year Olds
Scratches have reduced this field from the nine who were entered to just five, and it also changes how we expect the race to be run from a pace standpoint. Instead of a quick early pace that will compromise the chances of the frontrunners, the defections should allow 7-Golovkin to get an easy early lead, and on Gulfstream’s speed-favoring turf course, that is going to make him very, very tough to beat. We will take 6-1 that he can wire this group, and will bet him to win. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $35 to win on 7-Golovkin.
Fair Grounds, Race 7, 4:54 pm ET
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Louisiana-breds 4 & Up
After scratches, a field of eight lines up for this state-bred sprint. The pick is 4-Dixie Street, a 4-year-old gelding who starts for the first time since being claimed by trainer Karl Broberg. We like the speed figure he earned in his last start, which was quite good; we like the fact that Broberg jumps him in class here, running in this allowance spot rather than in another claiming race; and we also like that he is a pace-presser in a race whose pace we expect to favor that running style. Add it all up, and he’s the play; we will bet him to win at 4-1. The bet: Fair Grounds, Race 7, $35 to win on 4-Dixie Street.
Aqueduct, Race 8, 4:55 pm ET
$25,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, New York-breds 4 & Up
The nightcap in New York is a maiden claimer for New York-breds, and it drew a field of ten. We think the most important indicator of a horse’s current form is the most recent speed figure, and in this case and in this race, that makes 4-Alite the play. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 70 in his last start, which is far, far faster than any other horse has run, and we see no reason why he cannot run a similar race today, which will be more than good enough to beat this group, most of whom have the looks of career maidens. Look for him to win with a forwardly-placed trip, sitting just behind the leaders and moving to the front in the stretch. We will bet him to win at 5-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $30 to win on 4-Alite.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.