RT's Sunday Maiden America horse racing: Picks for the 3rd and 6th at Aqueduct
Maiden America 2.21.21
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Today we are looking at two maiden races from Aqueduct. The weather is warming, and the sun will be shining.
Race 3 - $25K Maiden Claimers
Statie 3yo’s going one mile on dirt
If you see that big number Eight Weeks Long (8/1) posted two back and thinking if he will near that, it should be an easy win, stop. That was on the turf, where horses travel further with much more ease. Dropping to maiden claiming from open company last time, he went off at 5/1 odds and his dirt prowess was witnessed, and it is not pretty. Last Wednesday, a first time starter named Caxambas Candy went off at 17/1 down at Gulfstream and his works were meh, like #2 Patty O’Marc (4/1) has posted. His trainer, David Fawkes is a 7% winner with first timers, yet he had Group 1 breeze figs similar to Patty’s. Trainer Linda Rice is only a 7% proposition with first time runners and this colt out of Giant Surprise has had pedestrian works as well. Will he win today? Not likely, however, with that score and long stride length, which is suited for distance, for the exotic wagerer, this is one to leave in. #3 Another Shot (3/1) got the 1st Lasix jitters last time and as the sub even odds favorite, ran a horrendous race. Today, he will get his second boost with the needle, gets a five pound break in the weights from bugboy Cardenas, and try to get back to his form from early December. With four state breed races under his belt, and the new rider, this does not look like the spot to back. Because it is evident that we have seen the best of #6 Bedazzling (3/1), I will take a hard pass. The one to beat is #8 Humpday (5/2). Tracking the data of late, jockeys who return to their mount in maiden claiming races under $25K are a 71% winning prop. In state bred maiden claiming races, it is almost 100%. Frankly, that was an odd one when it surfaced. This horse is ready to go, however. A couple of works since his last race with one hitting :48.2 and getting second Lasix today, look for a competitive run.
Race 6 - $80K Maiden Special Weight
3yo fillies and mares traveling 6.5 furlongs
I believe we have seen the best of Despeight All Odds (3/1) and there are three in this race that can beat her and get to, or past, the 72 Beyer number today. #1 Becca’s Wish (9/2), who ran in early January, hit the gate when leaving, and was gone from that race without hope. Jeremiah Englehart appears to have worked that kink out with her :48.5 hg work on February 5th and given her breeze fig and one race experience, will improve dramatically today. Given their bad betting proposition, I am not a fan of third time starters, yet #2 Cause To Dream (5/1) may be an exception. Her first race was four months ago, and it was disastrous at seven furlongs, so she was shelved, worked steadily up to her last race on Jan. 31 and performed well. She tracked the leaders before tiring on the dead rail and ended up with a 62 Beyer. Today, she gets second Lasix and on Valentine's, smoked a :47.6 four furlong work. She is in great shape and is ready to fire. Katie Davis, who is a helluva jockey, returns to the irons. Rob Atras is so cold that he would fit right in here in the Twin Cities. His #6 Up Seventyfour (6/1) has the best shot to snap his losing woes after running a good tracking race on Jan. 17, scoring a 52 Beyer. That said, twenty points is a big ask for this colt and he will likely hit the board, not the winners circle.
The play is Cause To Dream to w/p and the other three mixed in with exotic wagers.
Breeze Fig’s courtesy of Data Track International
BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors