Friday Horse Racing: RT picks the 1st at Aqueduct and Santa Anita and throws i a lot of breeze figures
Maiden America 2.05.21
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Breeze Fig’s courtesy of Data Track International.
BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Aqueduct Race 1 - $25K MCL
3yo’s going one mile
With two :36 bullet works and a :49 bullet work from the gate, first timer #6 New South (6/1) is going to be the one to catch. With their respective stride lengths, both tested horses below have the makings of solid route runners. The favorite, #1 Centavo (5/2) appears to be a false favorite due to his last three races being pedestrian efforts and all versus maiden claimers. The interesting one is #5 Ohyoudidntknow (9/2) who, less than three weeks ago, put up a 44 Beyer against the same class and gets second time Lasix. Today’s Beyer par being a 58, Ohyoudidntknow has a chance to hit that number. Trevor McCarthy, who has performed better of late at Aqueduct, retains the mount. Rob Atras and Kendrick Carmouche (29% together) have Yerosilverblitz and after showing some jump in his debut, he will be the one to watch. We will see if Kendrick takes Fed Biz’s son down the middle in the stretch, the garden spot of late.
Santa Anita – Race 1 - $61K MSW
3yo’s going 6f on turf
You can see where #3 Eagle Chief (5/1) was tested twice. The first one was in March and the Group 1 result was in May. The reason for re-testing was explained that horses have a poor breeze, come back, and have a better breeze. Some also had worse. Mostly, that was a training question: were they tight for the first breeze, or did they need one? Or did a pigeon fly in front of them or something? That said, and there are no empirical percentages to espouse, as of now as we are still compiling data, the horses that have been re-tested, by observation, and improved from one Group upward, have all fared well in their first three races. #1 No Foolery Here (8/1) is a Baltas trained colt out of a mare named Leo’s Pegasus, who won at first asking. Baltas, a 12% winner with first timers and 24% with Flavien Prat, has put in decent works for this and given the fact that his pedigree does not scream turf, you have to think that this race is for the experience. There are two Irish invaders in this race, two first timers and #7 First Class Dad (4/1) switches from dirt to turf. The two Irish horses have put in marginal works and it’s difficult to fathom such young horses, factually, less than two year old, shipping here and performing well immediately. Eagle Chief looks live today.
