Thursday Horse Racing: RT picks the Fair Grounds 4th and 5th, and offers up some breeze figures
Maiden America 2.04.21
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Breeze Fig’s courtesy of Data Track International.
BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Fair Grounds Race 4 – $30K MCL (30-25)
3yo Maiden going one mile on turf
Based on the pp’s, you would never think that #5 Chief Alpha (20/1) had the talent for a Group 1 breeze fig rating. Two races in and he has yet to give a decent showing. Today, he stretches out 1.5 furlongs and moves to turf. His daddy, Jack Milton, won the G1 Makers 46 Mile stakes, placed in several other Graded stakes and amassed a 19/5-2-5 record for $900K on turf. This is his third race in four weeks and today’s surface and distance may stir the pedigree in him. Use underneath. Matt Shirer has #3 Mr. Walsh (8/1) in the right spot given his father was a multiple graded stakes turf winner after the connections gave up the ghost on the Derby trail in 2012 and finally moved him to turf. This son of Optimizer showed good early foot in his debut and returns in three weeks and had a freshening on 1/30. His slow workout and return of Gabriel Saez, makes it apparent of trainer intention to teach the horse to settle and rate. He gets second Lasix today and with that long stride, may turn a head down the lane. #4 Smokey Harbor (9/2) Ron Faucheux gets an upgrade in jockey with Adam Beschizza today and it may be the tonic. This $50K Mineshaft colt put in a helluva race last out and you wouldn’t know it by reading the pp’s. Getting first Lasix jitters, Colby Hernandez fought him through the clubhouse turn, settled him in the backstretch and hit a wall of horses in front before swinging wide in the turn. He ran a little green and when he was righted, this guy was all business turning in an impressive :24.6 last fraction. #2 Man On The Moon (9/2) put up a great 70/73 score in Group 2 company and gets second Lasix today as well. $100K OBSAPR20 colt out of Distorted Humor has the stride length, pedigree, and boost in rider (James Graham) to be a late threat. #6 One Time Gem (6/1) can be a player. Considering this race is devoid of sustainable early speed, Graham is going to take this $40K grandson of Giant’s Causeway straight to the front and not look back. If he gets caught, it will likely be by one of the above mentioned, because #1 Ames Mister (7/2) is a false favorite. This will be his fourth $30K claiming attempt of his four races and after this period, we have seen his best….and more talent than him is in this field.
Fair Grounds Race 5 - $15K Maiden Claimers (15/10)
3yo Fillies going 5.5f
A friend called yesterday (yes, people in our age group actually talk on the phone) and said that he was working on a pick 5 at Gulfstream and asked whom I liked in the sixth. My answer was to not fall asleep on #7 Leyenda and his response was something on the order of that horse is never going to win, nag, glue factory ad nauseum. Just as she kicked on down the stretch to take over, at 12/1, the phone rang and noticing it was him, it did not get answered. 😊
The same, in this race, can be said about #10 Double Dare You (10/1). With two races under her belt in her two-year-old season, she was moved to FG, dropped to this level on turf, and showed good early speed in her first Lasix race. Today, she comes off a short respite, had a sharp :48.4 work, gets a boost in rider to Mitch Murrill, and turns way back in distance. #5 Mon Cherie (7/2) is another second Lasix recipient who tested well and gets a positive jockey change. She burned thru cash last out and this time she’ll likely take the lead. We’ll see if it’ll sustain. Based on the level of talent in this field, either of these has the potential to best the favorite, #9 Carsons Princess (5/2).