Maiden Sunday at the track: RT picks several maiden races including the 4th at the Fair Grounds Race Course
Fair Grounds Race Course & Casino in New Orleans@fairgroundsnola

Maiden Sunday at the track: RT picks several maiden races including the 4th at the Fair Grounds Race Course

First picked race, the 1st at Aqueduct, has a post time of 12:20 pm EST

Today is Maiden Sunday

Several maiden races to look at across the country, and there are a few rules that I have employed, and others I have hijacked

1) Second times starters, add 9 -15 points to their Beyer

2) Be wary of first-time starters getting first Lasix. Gate jitters can cause a bad break making it tough to get in the race

3) 3rd time starters are typically going to digress

4) For 1st time starters to be a live play, the trainer should have an 11% or greater win rate, the sire must have an 11% win rate with its offspring, the horse must have worked two to four works at four furlongs or greater averaging 12 seconds per furlong. Bonus points if the dam win her first out.

5) MCL horses rarely repeat their best efforts and msw horses dropping to mcl races win more often.

6) Take close notice of claimed horses in the maiden ranks.

7) Take close notice of horses who went off at low odds their first time

Aqueduct, sunny and mid 40’s today

Aqueduct Race 1 - $80K MSW

3yo’s going seven furlongs

#3 Khafre (8/5) $500K Centennial Farms first time starter satisfies two of the three mentioned criteria – his sire, American Pharoah, is 11% with offspring winning their first and he has a :47.4 from the gate, 1:00, and :48 flat in his last three works. However, James Jerkens is 8% with newbies and this is a tough sell at the distance for a first timer. #1 Repo Rocks (4/1) tried catching up to a face pace last out while stretching out one extra furlong and summarily was passed by fresher rivals. First Lasix will benefit as well as his experience at the distance. #4 Too Boss (6/5) is probably going to hit sub even money odds after notching a 68 Beyer in his last race. 10-13 added points for second time starts puts him near today’s 80 Beyer par. Those are the three logical contenders, and I will go once more unto the breach with Pablo Morales’ second time riding the golden rail on Repo Rocks

Aqueduct Race 6 - $40K MCL

3yo’s going six furlongs

Given the parameters set above, there are no qualifying first timers, so there is an exact box to pursue. #5 Jailbreaker (4/1), although the odds are unfavorable, #1a American Gentleman (9/5), both dropping to mcl and #6 Kentucky Knight (10/1) who gets first Lasix after an abysmal result in his first race dropping to mcl (more than likely bled that race).

Fair Grounds 4th Race - $30K MCL (30-25)

3yo fillies going one mile on the turf

Five choices of interest. #8 Flatteringapplause (10/1) will show improvement from his 44 Beyer last out, though does not project to today’s 61 par, will be of use underneath. #4 Unwanted Input (7/2) switch to Bret Calhoun barn and drop to mcl, where Bret is 32% in that scheme, Miguel Mena gets his second ride on Dixie Union’s granddaughter. #6 Kattegat (8/1) Mike Maker 17% off the claim, 22% in mcl races and 23% going from sprint to route. Out of Empire Maker, she went off at low odds in her bow. Expect a game effort today. #2 Danger Zone (10/1) races unprotected for the first time today and gets second Lasix. Dropping from msw to mcl, her projected Beyer of 56 puts her squarely in contention. In her first turf start, #3 Carson’s Princess (3/1), my overall choice, found the soft going unfavorable and burned the bettors money. Brad Cox dismissed Colby Hernandez in favor of Florent Geroux today and who can blame him? Geroux a stud in routes at 31% and is 26% on the turf. Strength of hands is one of the best traits of the better jockeys and if he gets 31% winners in routes, then he should be able to lockdown the speed style of this Tale Of The Cat filly, save ground and pounce in the end.

With time running low, here are the remaining choices:

FG 8 - #9 Point of Infinity (9/5)

GP 1 - #5 Alexandra Am I (12/1) over #1 Classic Secret (7/2)

GP 11 - #12 Not Stormy (5/1) to win and the long strider #11 The Great Oz (12/1) to get a slice

Lrl 4 - #1 One More Chapter (6/1) to upset the heavy favorite

LrL 9 - #1 Gold Panther (12/1) returns to avenge her poor showing at low odds last out

SA 4 - #8 Short Rib (4/1) in an upset with up-and-coming buggirl Jessica Pyfer, and shedding 11 lbs., over heavy favorite Kennebec (3/5)

Trainer 20% Or Better First Off The Claim

Aqu 3 – Respect For All (formerly known as Grape Soda)

LrL 5 – Mr. Chesepeakecity, Meo Desperado

LrL 7 – Olive’s Bumpa

1st Lasix Maiden Finished 3rd Or Better in Last

Aqu 1 – Too Boss

FG 8 – Perks D’oro

GP 1 – Alexandra Am I, Sister Is Devil

GP 6 – Uncaptured Heart, Yes It’s Free, Snackster, Vegas Weekend

GP 11 – Lord Flintshire, Oxfire, Golden Fiddle (AE), Carrobio (MTO)

LrL 9 – She’s All Courage

SA 5 – Our Little Tiger

Tam 10 – Big Bad Diva, Reina Del Sol

2nd Lasix MCL Finished 3rd Or Better in Last

Tam 6 – Diamond State

Tam 10 – Modest

My Virtual Stable

Aqu 2 – Mia Bea Star – Linda Rice 17% off the claim

Aqu 3 – Make It In Ny – fabulous late kick

Aqu 8 – Ujjayi – game filly looking for her 1st stakes win

LrL 5 – Mr. Chesapeakecity – Anthony Farrior 33% off the claim, Meo Desperado – Dale Capuano 29% off the claim

LrL 7 – Olive’s Bump - Anthony Farrior 33% off the claim

GP 8 – High Five Cotton – Jose Delgado 35% sprint to route, 27% in allowance races

SA 6 – Love My Jimmy – Peter Miller 27% winning last

GG 6 – Pour On The Cole – Steven Specht/Catalino Martinez, a 50% win combo

Interesting Key Race Long Shots

GG 5 – Luck Is My Name

LrL 8 – Combat Queen

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