Rt’s Tips and Trends 1.16.2021
Sour grapes today as my single in the third leg of my pick three that I posted, as well as the pick four and five, was thwarted by a claim. Within seconds of the race being decided, the connections tweeted congrats to Karl Broberg for claiming their horse. This type of scheming, backroom legerdemain, has been in the claiming ranks since the days of Lexington winning three Preakness Stakes.
For the out-of-the-know bettor, you are left with a raw feeling of being jobbed and it truly, in a word, sucks. The solution to this is simple – all claims must be submitted before the first race; the public will be made aware and the number of claims submitted will have a limit. Like football is with challenges, claims that the trainer/connections void post-race will have a penalty. That would avoid someone making a stab at every horse and only settling on the wanted one or few. This will avoid the seller to not care about the result of the race to wit: How many times have you studied the pp’s, know your horse is the best in the race, and it runs like my 87-year-old mother? If there is an insinuation of doubt as to whether someone is going to claim your horse or it goes back to the barn, that will change the instruction to the jockey; therefore, necessitating fair play.
Although the $4.8M colt Darain ran second, he was impressive in his US debut after he ended up swinging wide in the stretch, losing valuable ground and came on strong, to just miss.
Three stakes races today that are of interest.
Fair Grounds Race 3 – The $100K Duncan F. Kenner Stakes
4yo’s↑ going 5.5f on turf
I am going with #2 Fast Boat (9/2). Two bullet works of :47 & 36, this grandson of Lemon Drop Kid is 5:2-0-1 at FG turf and 20:7-1-3 for $335K on turf overall. He will be chasing a fast pace today and will have to compete with #8 Archidust (7/2) in the final paces.
Fair Grounds Race 9 – The $100K Marie G. Krantz Memorial Stakes
Fillies and mares 4yrs↑ going 8.5 miles on turf
#7 Curlin’s Journey (8/1) has been showing strong form recently, #5 Dalika (2/1) is going to take a lot of money and #3 Secret Message (5/2) catches them all late. That is an exacta box which I will be playing.
The $200K G3 Lecomte Stakes, the 13th at Fair Grounds.
This race has Derby implications as the points up for grabs are 10-4-2-1.
We have three-year-olds going 8.5 furlongs
#1 Midnight Bourbon (7/2)
$525K Keeneland September yearling purchase is out of Tiznow and his dam is Catch The Moon. I have a personal preference to study the dam closer, given that she can only deliver one foal a year. She has spawned four offspring, including Midnight Bourbon. Her other three have all been successful graded stakes winners, including Girvin, the 2017 winner of the $1M Louisiana Derby. While the “experts” tout #10 Mandaloun (3/1), I will go with the only one who has graded stakes race experience.
Trainer 20% Or Better First Off The Claim
Laurel 1 – Souper Houdini
GP 12 – Lauderdale
CT 4 – China Cat
1st Lasix Maiden Finished 3rd Or Better in Last
Aqu 4 – Full Moon Fever
Aqu 7 – Doublepour & It’s Gravy
GP 2 – Pretzel
GP 4 – Courageously
GP 6 – Rockstar Ro & Equueleus
GP 7 – He’spuregold & Conrad The Red
Tam 10 – Beach Warrior
FG 5 – Dramatizer (AE)
FG 6 – Scarlet Fusion & Cool Rags
SA 5 – Medusa’s Gaze
GG 2 – Atlantic Strike & Ranger Molly
GG 7 – Ten The Smart Way, Fast To Fortune, Amazen Grazen, Phantom Indian
2nd Lasix MCL Finished 3rd Or Better in Last
Tam 5 – South House, Blazing Jojo
TP 8 – Joyful Praise, Organza (AE)
Horses In My Virtual Stable
GP 7 – Conrad The Red
