With few stakes races carded today, and the weather in much of the East looking wet and wintry, we are going to head West, to Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California, to take on a pretty decent 9-race Sunday card. We have four individual race plays, and will also take a stab at the late Pick 4. The weather will be fine out West, main track fast, and the turf firm. Let’s go.
Santa Anita Park, Race 1, 3:30 pm ET
Allowance, 1 mile, Turf, California-breds 4 & Up
Nine older maidens go in the opener at the Great Race Place. The pick is 1-Big City Bane. He was claimed for $32,000 last out by Peter Miller, who is hot right now, having won stakes races at Santa Anita each of the last two days. We like the fact that Miller has placed Big City Bane aggressively, jumping him in class from claiming to allowance company, and we like that Big City Bane has a good late turn of foot. We will bet him to win at 5-1. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 1, $25 to win on 1-Big City Bane.
Santa Anita Park, Race 3, 4:34 pm ET
$50,000 Claiming, 1 mile, Turf, 4 & Up
This claimer drew a field of seven. We like 2-Maestro Dearte, a class dropper from the Peter Eurton barn. He has been running exclusively against allowance company, and while he’s not been embarrassing himself, having finished in the money in four of his five races last year, neither was he able to win any of them. While we generally view class drops as a negative sign, we do not think that is the case here, as Maestro Dearte is probably a better fit against these $50k claimers than against the horses he’s been facing, especially since he’s now 7 years old. At 5-1, we think he’s a good play, and will bet him to win. The bet: Santa Anita Park, Race 3, $30 to win on 2-Maestro Dearte.
Santa Anita Park, Race 7, 6:35 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 1 ⅛ miles, Turf, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
Eight female maidens line up to run nine furlongs on the Santa Anita turf. Seven of them are 4-year-olds, but we like the one mare who just turned 5: it’s 6-England’s Rose, who comes from the John Shirreffs barn. She did not make her first start until the summer of her 4-year-old season, so she obviously had some physical issues, and we think that after two starts in shorter races, one on dirt and one on turf, she is going to get a chance to go long on the grass, which is what her pedigree and running style suggest she will be best at. Look for her to sit mid-pack early, through fractions that should be moderate or even slow, and to be running powerfully late. We will bet her to win at 2-1. The bet: Santa Anita Park, Race 7, $40 to win on 6-England’s Rose.
Santa Anita Park, Race 8, 7:05 pm ET
Grade 2 Santa Ynez Stakes, 7 furlongs, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies
They might as well start naming these 3-year-old Santa Anita stakes races after trainer Bob Baffert, for after running 1-2 in the Sham yesterday, Baffert starts four of the seven entrants in the Santa Ynez, and it looks very likely that one of them will be the winner. The question is which one, and the filly we like is 6-Frosteria, who is a maiden, but who has been unlucky in her brief, three-race career, having run well enough to win any of them, but finishing second each time to fillies who just happened to run a bit faster. We think that changes today, that she will get a good pace-pressing trip from her outside post, and to wear down the speed horses down the stretch. We will bet her to win at 5-1. The bet: Santa Anita Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 6-Frosteria.
In the late pick 4, which covers races 6 through 9, the picks are as follows:
Race 6: Top picks: 2-Du Jour, 7-Star Sailor. Backups: none
Race 7: Top Pick: 6-England’s Rose. Backups: 1-Acoustic Shadow, 4-Lookin So Lucky
Race 8: Top Picks: 3-Exotic West, 6-Frosteria. Backups: 5-Varda, 7-Kalypso.
Race 9: 3-All Quality, 4-Constantia, 11-Dolce. Backups: 6-Quiet Secretary, 7-Althea Gibson, 8-Affianced, 10-A New Peace.
We will construct our play with multiple tickets, as follows:
$1 Pick 4: 2,7 with 6 with 3,6 with 3,4,11 ($12 ticket)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,7 with 1,4 with 3,6 with 3,4,11 ($12 ticket)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,7 with 6 with 5,7 with 3,4,11 ($6 ticket)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,7 with 6 with 3,6 with 6,7,8,10 ($8 ticket)
We will win if the top picks win each race, or if any combination of three top picks and one backup wins. The total cost of all four tickets is $38.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.