Girl horses 3yo’s↑ making a one turn mile
#3 Thissmytime (7/2) is the equine equivalent of the 1986/1987 Twins, who went from last place in 86 and won the World Series in 87. Two back, in a $44K allowance optional claimer, she was beaten by 44 lengths and the next time she raced, the $60K Millions Filly and Mare Preview Stakes, she crushed the competition by 11.5 lengths and earned a 96 Beyer. It’s doubtful that number is repeated today. #6 Sky Chaser (5/2) with Irad riding, expect to see the odds reduced. Horse for the course, getting a strike rate of 16:5-2-2 for $134K, she has had a good 2020 going 9:3-1-3 for $100K and she’s 5:2-1-2 with $78K in earnings at the distance. #5 Maedean (2/1) the connections shifted this $450K Tapit filly to Shug and she hasn’t seen a race since early March. Shug not known for getting his horses off to a quick start and cold jockey Junior Alvarado (0/28 thru yesterday) in the irons. Pass. My choice is #1 Movie Moxy (3/1) as Churchill shipper has yet to miss the board in her brief career. Breaking her maiden two back in a $74K msw sprint, she made easy work of the field in an NW2 $87K allowance race on November 11th. She is a $225K Keeneland September filly that has the speed and breeding that’ll be tough to beat today. Tyler G rode her the first two tomes in her career and will be back in the irons today. With Eddie Kenneally, they’re a 23% winning prop. She’s going to take the lead and not let go.
Fillies and mares 3yo↑ going one mile on the turf
This should be a fast pace with #1 Vitaemi (4/1) #7 Maries Melody (20/1) #4 Rosa Star (15/1) and the favorite #5 Jabuticaba (5/2) all vying for the front. In short order, Jabuticaba will emerge, leaving the rest to get in the way of the closers.
This type of setup is custom made for Paco Lopez on #8 Lucy’s Town (5/1) and it would not surprise to see #10 Charge Account (8/1) be near the wire at the end.
State bred fillies and mares 3yo↑ going 5F on turf
#2 Richies Great Girl (3/1) third race off an eight month layoff And frankly have not seen a Hawthorne shipper fare well. Pass. #5 Patton’s Girl (10/1) Woodbine shipper is running in her third race off a long layoff. With this inside draw, I suspect she’ll be in the 2nd wave of runners and be looking for a spot around the turn. Given her form cycle, I would play her in exotics. #6 another Woodbine shipper who had a tough go last out and was looking for racing room and still got up for second. Luis Saez takes this mount which means that agent and former trainer Kiaran McLaughlin know about this Medaglia d’Oro filly. #8 War Star (7/2) just missed last out after scorching the stretch to be beaten by a neck, getting third place money. This filly is in very sharp form right now and should be included. Paco Lopez is in the irons. #10 Precocious Peach (4/1) with Hector Barrios is going to take her straight to the front and may get the job done. My choice is #11 Song River (6/1) this is one of those rare instances where you throw away the handicapping manual and go with the key race method. Six horses entered into that race, four winners, one fourth place finisher, who held to the final paces, and Song River is the last of them.