Mahoning Valley 12.18.2020
Sunny and nippy - 34˚
Taking the top two purses and seeing what we can come up with
Race 5 - $10K Claiming N2Y
State bred 3yo↑ going 6F
Hot pace expected in this as #5 Reanimate (2/1) #4 Blingitonagain (5/2) #3 Ol’ LB (7/2) will go straight to the front. #6 Jack Be Fast (12/1) will be pressing as well as #8 Don’t Text N Drive (10/1). Don’t Text N Drive is coming out of a key race and has been on the bench since early September. Trainer Michael Rone is a stout 27% winner with returning horses at +120 days. He’s had a couple of solid works at MVR and an 8:1-1-1 record at the track. This 5yo has a terrific pedigree with AP Indy and Smart Strike in his lineage. 2nd leading rider Luis Rivera up today and j/t combo is 21%. Leave this one in your exotic plays. Interestingly, the only front runner in this to hit the line first, recently, is Blingitonagain and that was on turf in mid-August. Reanimate is the likely horse to take the money and I believe he’s beatable. Ol’ LB was in terrific form shipping from Belterra. His two races at MVR have been in the mud and this grandson of Fusaichi Pegasus is not a mud guy. My choice is #7 Mobile At Last (6/1). Gary Johnson 18% turning back horses from routes to a sprint. Getting leading jockey Sonny Leon is a great omen and together, they’re 5:2-1-0 for the meet. Cryptoclearance grandson has a late rating of 95 and with the leading jockey aboard; look for him to lay closer to the pace today.
Race 6 - $21.8K Allowance N2X
3yo’s↑ going one mile
Another fast pace expected with #1 Maximizer (8/1), #6 Candy Exchange (10/1) and #4 Pat’s Karma (6/1) fighting for the lead. #5 Mobil Solution (5/2) and #2 Montauk Cove (4/1) will lay near and look for a spot to close around the turn. #8 Tez (2/1) is going to take the money and won’t win. Yes, Aaron West has an excellent record with second off the claimers; yes, he has a 30% win rate in routes and yes, Luis Rivera is in the irons. However, he has not raced since mid-October and has had zero races or works at the track. His last workout was at Indiana and he’s been sitting in his barn freezin’ his arse. My choices in this are Mobil Solution and #6 Candy Exchange (10/1). On Halloween day, this lover of MVR was put in the $100K Ohio Sprint after just switching barns. He showed some brief speed and ka ka’d the bed. Giving the timing of that race, it appears that it was “take him out for air” type of race for new trainer Lorenzo Juarez. Three weeks ago, set off at 4/1 odds, he hauled in the stretch, hitting the last fraction in :27, to just miss by a nose. 13:3-2-1 for $58K at MVR and 9:3-1-3 for $57K at the distance. This guy comes into this in peak form and a price can be had.