NYRA Horse Racing at Aqueduct: Garrity picks three Sunday stakes races plus two Pick 3 tickets
It’s a relatively quiet day in the racing world, at least as far the national stakes schedule is concerned, so we have zeroed in on the card at Aqueduct, specifically races 6 through 8, where we have a handful of plays. All are on dirt, which will be fast. Let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 6, 2:45 pm ET
New York Stallion Series Stakes, 7 furlongs, Dirt, New York-bred 2-Year-Old Fillies
This is the first of two quite good stakes races for state-bred juveniles at Aqueduct this afternoon. It’s for females, and drew a field of eleven. And while this might not be the fastest group of horseflesh ever assembled, it’s a pretty evenly matched field, and therefore a good betting race.
The pick is the favorite, 11-Laobanonaprayer. She broke her maiden in her most recent start, the third of her career, and it was in a pretty good state-bred stakes race, the Maid of the Mist, at Belmont Park on Oct. 24. And while she got a good trip from a traffic standpoint, sitting just off the pacesetters and passing them as they tired down the stretch, the pace shape of the race (she was close to fast early fractions) suggests her run was legitimate. She cuts back from a mile to seven furlongs, which we like, and should get another good trip with her outside draw. She is strictly the one to beat, and we will bet her to win at 9/5. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 6, $40 to win on 11-Laobanonaprayer.
Aqueduct, Race 7, 3:17 pm ET
Garland of Roses Stakes, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Six fillies and mares, after scratches, will go to the post in the Garland of Roses. We like 2-Saguaro Row. She comes into this race off a fairly long layoff, having last run in February, but she probably needed a rest, as she’d run very regularly for almost a year before her vacation. She’s a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime at this six furlong distance, and we think the race will develop nicely for her, as the pace figures to be fast, which will set the table for her strong closing kick. We will bet her to win at 7/2. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 7, $40 to win on 2-Saguaro Row.
Aqueduct, Race 8, 3:45 pm ET
New York Stallion Series, 7 furlongs, Dirt, New York-bred 2-Year-Olds
This is the second installment of the New York Stallion Series races at the Big A today, in which eleven colts will line up to run seven furlongs. 7-Dreamer’s Disease should be favored, as he earned big speed figures in his two most recent starts, both at Keeneland, an allowance on Oct. 3 and a 6th-place finish in the Breeders Cup Juvenile on Nov. 6. We think he’s an underlay, especially at a likely miniscule price, and we are going to try to beat him with a colt at a big price, 3-New York One. He ships to New York after a very, very good win in an allowance race at Mountaineer Park on Nov. 23, and while there is a chance that the speed figure he earned in that race was inflated by the muddy track over which it was run, from a pace standpoint he earned every bit of it, as he pressed a very, very fast pace, and still drew off to win by a smooth five lengths. He’s fit, he has a good trainer in Jim Chapman, and he is 20-1 on the morning line, and he is the pick. We will bet him to win at 20-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $30 to win on 3-New York One.
We like the fact that these races are going to be run consecutively. With the big fields and the general competitiveness of each of them, we think a big payout in the Pick 3 is a distinct possibility. So we will throw our hat into this multi-race ring, and will do so with the following picks:
Race 6: Top pick: 11-Laobanonaprayer. Backups: 1-Gray Destiny, 3-Shanes Pretty Lady, 9-Athena Dancer, 12-Flower’s Fortune.
Race 7: Top pick: 2-Saguaro Row. Backups: 1-Lady Ninja, 5-Honor Way, 7-Honey I’m Good.
Race 8: Top Picks: 2-It’s Gravy, 3-New York One, 4-The King Cheek, 6-Market Alert, 7-Dreamer’s Disease, 8-Hold the Salsa, 9-Horn of Plenty, 12-Windy Nations.
Putting all these selections on one wager would result in a 5x4x8 ticket, which is 160 combinations, which is too expensive a ticket. So we are going to reduce the cost by playing two tickets, each singling our top picks in Races 6 and 7. That results in the following wagers:
Aqueduct, Race 6, $1 Pick 3: 11 with 1,2,5,7 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,12
Aqueduct, Race 6, $1 Pick 3: 1,3,9,11,12 with 2 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,12
These tickets will cost $32 and $40, respectively. The objective is to be alive to the last race in the sequence, Race 8, as that race is wide open, could very well produce a winner at a big price, and a very large Pick 3 payout.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.