It’s going to be a cold and windy afternoon at Aqueduct Race Course, with a very wet forecast overnight, but as of this morning, it looks like the rain is going to hold off, at least for the most part, until the day’s racing is over. So we’re taking on the card at the Big A, and it’s a good one, with four plays in three races. We’re expecting fast dirt and good turf. Let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 2, 12:50 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, Turf, 2-Year-Old Fillies
A field of eight juvenile fillies lines up for this maiden turf sprint. We’re not overly impressed with the form of those who have run before, which has us going with a first-time starter, and a price, in the form of 8-Miss Dracarys. She’s well-bred, by Malibu Moon out of a Speightstown mare, and she was an expensive yearling purchase, selling for $525,000 at Keeneland sale two Septembers ago. But what drew our attention is her morning workout pattern: trainer Neil Drysdale does not normally work his horses all that quickly, so the fact that she’s fired a couple of very fast drills is noteworthy. We think she’s a runner, and we think she has a shot here, and at 15-1, we’re betting her. We will bet her to win and to place. Because we like another long shot in the 3rd race (see below), we will also make a small Double play with both of them -- if it hits, the payout will be enormous. The bets: Aqueduct, Race 2, $20 to win/$15 to place on 8-Miss Dracarys; $5 Double, 8 (Miss Dracarys) with 10 (Il Primo Sole).
Aqueduct, Race 3, 1:18 pm ET
Allowance, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 3 & Up
A field of six, after scratches, lines up to go in this first-level allowance. We’re taking a shot with a price, 10-Il Primo Sole. She’s an English-bred 5-year-old mare, and while her last two races were nothing to write home about, they were not embarrassing either: She finished a close fourth in two turf sprints. She stretches out to a route here, and we think she may be able to reach back and grab some of her back class -- between 2017 and 2018, she ran in some very tough races in France and England -- and score at big odds. We think she’ll get a good trip, and we think she’ll like the going, and at 15-1, we are backing her at the windows. We will bet her to win. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 3, $25 to win on 10-Il Primo Sole.
Aqueduct, Race 6, 2:45 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs, Turf, 2-Year-Olds
This is another first-level allowance, a turf sprint, and it drew a field of eight. 4-It’s a Gamble is a strong play: The Kelly Breen-trained son of English Channel comes out of two stakes races, and while he didn’t remind anyone of Secretariat in either of them, they both were around two turns, and this afternoon he returns to sprinting, which we think he will like better. He gets class relief -- these colts are not nearly as tough as those he has been facing -- and we also think the shape of the race will help him, as there’s a lot of speed, and that should favor his strong finishing kick. We will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 6, $40 to win on 4-It’s a Gamble.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the races, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.