RT picks three Saturday Stakes at Aqueduct, including the Central Park, a classy 2yo race on turf
RT Report 11.28.2020
Three stakes races today at Aqueduct.
Race 3 – The $100K Discovery Stakes, 3yo’s going 9 panels on dirt
#1 Shared Sense (3/2) is probably going to go off at upside down odds and provide bettors with very little payoff. This is not to say that he isn’t a deserving favorite, having won $448K in just ten races, $298K at the distance and $370K this year. #5 Attachment Rate (4/1) just popped an almost gate to wire run at CD hitting a 106 Equibase speed figure fifty-eight days ago. In early October and his last race, #3 Forza D’oro (2/1) dug in a gutted out a win at Belmont. However, #2 Monday Morning QB is going to be my choice. He is 3-1-1 at the distance, has a race over the track and is the only entrant to win a stakes race against older horses. His daddy, Imagining 26:9-5-2 for $1.2M on turf, so he has the pedigree to make this happen.
Race 7 – The $100K Central Park Stakes, for 2yo’s going 8.5 furlongs on turf
As the saying goes, “the majority of horses will go further over the turf than they will over the dirt course,” so, distance is not as big of a consideration for this group.
#7 Hard Love (3/1) scored a 26.13 stride length when tested at Ocalas’ breeding center and testing in March of this year. This is vs. an average of 24.95 which means at this distance of one mile and a sixteenth, or 5610 feet, he will have made 215 strides vs 224 or a 1/3rd furlong lead over the mean. Effectively, he’ll expend less energy, travel at a faster rate and gain more ground than the mean. From a pace perspective, Timeform has him at a 105 for early, second best of this group, and 75 late, third best, telling me his pace can either stay on or near the lead, or come from behind. Finally, he ran his one and only race at this distance in 1:42.4 at Belmont. Their record for that track is 1:41.27 and the record at Aqueduct for the same distance and surface is 1:40.27. For a 2yo to score like that in its maiden voyage, with improvement and maturity in the offing, this Kitten’s Joy colt is heading for big things. #10 Royne (5/1) comes into this as a maiden yet ran an outstanding race on the tapeta at Woodbine earlier this month, setting the pace and gamely hanging on for second. The third-place finisher from that race, Perfect Crime, scored with an improving number a week ago. Trainer Michael Dickinson 2 for 4 on first turf. #8 Never Surprised (5/2) understandably is going to take a ton of cash. Pletcher/Carmouche now a 38% w3in team and this Constitution colt just did smash mouth horse racing on 11/8, smoking the last fraction in 12:17, damn near better than the previous. That race earned him a 99 Equibase figure and if he goes on from that, he should be lights out today. #2 Breadman (5/1) went off as the favorite last month in the $150K Sleepy Hollow Stakes where he pressed and tired. That was a switch to dirt for him and now goes back to turf where his maiden win came from off the pace. He should be a player in this. Finally, never count out Shug. His #5 Scarlett Sky (6/1) just won in convincing fashion by 4.5 lengths at this track just two weeks ago.
My choice is Hard Love with Breadman and Never Surprised. This may be one of the better two-year-old stakes this year. Looking forward to it.
Race 10 – The $100K Long Island Stakes, for 3yo+ fillies and mares going 12.5 furlongs on turf
Hitting deadline , so running out of time. Briefly, my choices are #9 Theodora B (6/1), #6 English Affair (8/1), #10 Pretty Point (20/1) and #4 Mutamakina (7/2). The unrequited greed in me wants to go with Pretty Point and candidly, she has put up big Equibase numbers against tougher. I may put in for a small slice across the board and I will be using these four in exacta/trifecta combos.