Garrity's Wednesday Stakes: Bettors Insider's handicapper picks the Slocum and To Much Coffee at Indiana Grand
We are headed today to Indiana Grand Race Course, in Shelbyville, Indiana, where the only two stakes races in the country will be run under sunny, chilly, and breezy skies. We have plays in both stakes, as well as one race on the undercard. All three are for state-breds, and all are on the main track, which will be fast. Let’s go.
Indiana Grand, Race 6, 4:35 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 5 ½ furlongs, Dirt, Indiana-breds 3 & Up
This 5 ½ furlong sprint has eight Indiana-breds going to the post. The heavy favorite is 1-You Go Boy, and while his form is good, we think his post will really hurt him: he drew the rail, while a horse with much, much more early speed, 2-Sacred Kiki Bird, drew right outside him. Perhaps You Go Boy is good enough right now to outrun a difficult trip, but we see a distinct possibility of him getting pinned down on the rail with nowhere to go, and at a short price, that makes him a play-against.
We like 6-Here Comes Doc. He’s a stretch-runner whose recent speed figures are competitive with the favorite’s, but he has two tactical advantages here: the outside post, and the fact that he’s a stretch runner in a race that will probably have a fast or even very fast pace. Look for Here Comes Doc to sit chilly early, running freely in the middle of the track and avoiding all traffic, and then to pounce when the field turns for him. We will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 6, $35 to win on 6-Here Comes Doc.
Indiana Grand, Race 8, 5:35 pm ET
$100,000 Frances Slocum Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, Indiana-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
A deep and competitive field of thirteen goes in the Slocum. Favored 10-Piedi Bianchi represents a handicapping puzzle that we see with some regularity: she has the best speed figures in the field, and by a pretty wide margin, but the figs were all earned in sprints, and in her previous attempts to run in races around two turns, she faded badly. She’s in the best form, but will she be able to get this mile and a sixteenth distance?
We think the answer is no: we will be playing against Piedi Bianchi, and we will be doing so in the form of a mare at a price, 12-Magical Peapod. She’s run in some pretty tough races this year, and has fared fairly well, and while all of her 2020 starts have been on turf, she does have some sneaky good back form on dirt, including a third-place finish in this race last year. We think she’s sitting on a big race, and that makes her 12-1 morning line price look like a mammoth overlay to us. We will bet her to win and to place. The bets: Indiana Grand, Race 8, $25 to win/$15 to place on 12-Magical Peapod.
Indiana Grand, Race 9, 6:05 pm ET
$100,000 To Much Coffee Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, Indiana-breds 3 & Up
Like the race before it, the To Much Coffee drew a big field, with 12 entrants after scratches. In a race where the two favortes, 7-Flatter Hymn and 9-Unbridled’s Beast, are 3-year-olds, we like an older horse, 12-Jova, to take the prize. The three appear to be pretty close in ability, at least as far as speed figures go, but we give Jova the edge, as he has a bit better late-pace figures, which means he should be finishing more strongly down the stretch. He’s also a better price, 8-1, which looks to us like a trip to Overlay City. We will bet Jova to win. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 9, $30 to win on 12-Jova.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.