RT and SmartCap pick the Sunday Card at Woodbine, including the $300K Northern Dancer and the $600K Taylor stakes races
RT Report 10.18.2020
Excellent card at Woodbine today. The weather is forecasted to be partly sunny and upper 50’s.
Still without STATS Race Lens through Equibase, so it’s Timeform and DRF to aide.
Race 2 – $64K Maiden Special Weight going 6f for 3yo+
Big shout out here for my Twitter buddy and fellow Minnesotan Al Ulwelling (@ulwellingracing), who has Justin Stein back in the irons on #5 Windchill Zar (3/1). This gelding out of Tapizar responded well to Justin two back and recently posted a solid 95 Timeform score in $123K company. He gets a needed cutback in distance and just had a brisk :48 workout. Good Luck, fellas.
Race 3 - $62K Allowance Optional Claimer for 3yo+ NW2x NW3 or NWy going 8.5f on turf
SmartCap has #1 Strike Me Down (8/5) with the best overall class, speed, last and second last numbers. He also has best money numbers with $19K/race at WO, $10K/race for the year and $17K/race lifetime. He is 6:1-3-1 at this distance for $95K, third off the layoff and in his last, ran two to three wide, took over the lead in the stretch, then tired. Look for the rail trip to be his friend today. That said, #3 Osage Moon (12/1) is going to be my choice. This is his third race off the layoff and his numbers last year show that he can best this group. Mark Casse has a way of pointing horses to races like this and come up big, so look for a lot of speed and this son of Malibu Moon to take it in the stretch.
Race 5 – The $300K G1 Northern Dancer Turf Stakes for 3yo+ going 1.5 miles on the turf
On paper, #7 Admiralty Pier (9/2) appears to be the one to beat, yet he has never gone this distance, will get out to a big lead early and running twelve furlongs from gate to wire for a win does not appear in the cards for him today. #8 Count Again (2/1) circled the field last out and won going away in The Singspiel Stakes here on Sept. 19. The added distance should play into his hands. I’m going with #1 Say The Word (8/1). After a troubled trip last out in the 1.25 mile Singspiel, he smoked the stretch to get up for third. The extra distance and Emma-Jayne Wilson having a second go around with him, looks like a solid play.
Race 7 – The $600K G1 Taylor Stakes for fillies and mares 3yo+ going 1.25 miles on turf
Regardless of numbers, races, and pp’s, I am going with #7 Elizabeth Way (10/1). This 4yo Godolphin filly is out of the top sire in Europe – Galileo, who’s son and father of this gal, Frankel was 14/14 for $4.7M in earnings. She was bred for this depth and distance and has been working smartly. Trainer Josie Carroll has #5 Court Return (20/1) and he has a sneaky way of pulling off upsets – with Daisuke Fukomoto in the irons, this tandem is a whopping 56% win prop. The public will love Theodora B (2/1) and Etoile (9/5), and they are both coming off their biggest numbers ever, so a repeat may be tough for them.
The remainder of SmartCap card is below, followed by an explanation.