Garrity heads to Keeneland and Monmouth for 3 Wednesday horse racing plays, including the $100,000 Jersey Shore Stakes
Garrity's first post is 3:18 pm EDT.
We head today to Keeneland Race Course, in Lexington, deep in Kentucky Bluegrass country, and to Monmouth Park in New Jersey, where we have three total plays for a Wednesday afternoon. We are expecting fast dirt in the two main-track races, and good turf in the grass race, which is at Keeneland. Let’s go.
Keeneland, Race 5, 3:18 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Nine female non-winners line up for this maiden race. There are in the group horses with no experience (first-time starters), and horses with lots of experience (winless after a few, or even many, starts), and while debating whether to take promising horses who lack seasoning, or seasoned horses who don’t look all that good, we decided to split the difference, in the form of 5-Take Charge Ro, who has some experience, but still appears potentially to have quite a bit of upside.
Take Charge Ro has started twice, and while the first one was just OK, that race was on dirt, and she improved significantly in her second and last start, a mile maiden race on the grass at Gulfstream Park on April 11. We think she fits here, we think she can fire coming off the layoff, and most important, we don’t think she will have to be the second coming of Goldlikova to beat this modest group. At 3-1, we think she is a square price, and will play her to win. The bet: Keeneland, Race 5, $35 to win on 5-Take Charge Ro.
Monmouth Park, Race 8, 4:10 pm
$100,000 Jersey Shore Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds
A full field of ten sophomore colts lines up for the Jersey Shore Stakes. 3-Premier Star is a strong play: he’s earned very good speed figures in each of his last two starts, and while both of those races were sprints, we think he will handle the longer distance just fine. He also gets class relief here, starting in this overnight stakes coming out of a good third-place finish in the Grade 2 Amsterdam at Saratoga. New York-based Mike Trombetta does not ship to Jersey often, with only three starts at the current meet, but when he does, he’s live, with a win and a third in those three races. We think Premier Star wins this race easily, and will bet him to win at 2-1. The bet: Monmouth Park, Race 8, $50 to win on 3-Premier Star.
Keeneland, Race 7, 4:24 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies
This is a salty group of second-level allowance runners. There are eight sophomore filly entrants after scratches.
We like 8-Purrfectly Claire. The first three races of her career were quite good, a second in her career debut and then two consecutive wins, but then her last race was dreadful, a last-place finish in the Piroress Stakes at Saratoga on Sept. 5. But we are willing to draw a line through that race, as it was an enormous class jump for her -- she went from winning a first-level allowance at Indiana Grand to a Grade 2 Stakes at the toughest meeting of the year -- and that she fared poorly is not necessarily an unforgivable indictment of her ability. We think the drop back to this allowance level makes a much improved effort on her part likely, and we think the draw also favors a rebound, as she has high early speed and a coveted outside post. We think she gets a perfect outside stalking trip here, and returns to her winning ways at 9/2 odds. We will bet her to win. The bet: Keeneland, Race 7, $40 to win on 8-Purrfectly Claire.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.