Garrity's Wednesday Stakes picks are at Indiana Grand (Richmond, Gus Grissom) and at closing day at Kentucky Downs – the Franklin-Simpson
There are three stakes today, two at Indiana Grand and one at Kentucky Downs. Those are our three plays. Both races in Indiana are on conventional dirt, which we expect to be fast, and we expect firm turf in Kentucky. Let’s go.
Indiana Grand, Race 7, 5:08 pm ET
$75,000 RIchmond Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, Indiana-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
A field of seven state-breds goes to the post here. The hot favorite is 3-Unbridled Class, who’s 4/5 off two wins and a good second in her last three starts. Her speed and pace figures in those races are quite good, but they were all sprints, and she’s stretching out here, and we’re not sure she’s as good around two turns as she is around one. At miserly odds-she’s an underlay, and a play-against.
The pick is 7-Expect Indy. She has decent early speed, and while she has also been sprinting in her recent races, she appears to be much more likely to appreciate the added ground than the other contenders. We see a stalking trip from her outside post, a late move past the tiring pacesetters, and a trip to the winner’s circle. We will bet her to win at 4-1. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 7, $35 to win on 7-Expect Indy.
Kentucky Downs, Race 9, 5:32 pm ET
Grade 3 Franklin-Simpson Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, Turf, 3-Year-Olds
A full field of twelve goes here, in the featured race on closing day at Kentucky Downs. At the risk of making an observation that will seem idiotic later, we note this race looks easy to us: 1-Turned Aside has good figs, a good trainer in Linda Rice, and good recency, with a win in a Grade 3 turf sprint in her last, which was at Saratoga on July 24. We think he takes the prize here, and we will bet him to win. The bet: Kentucky Downs, Race 9, $40 to win on 1-Turned Aside.
Indiana Grand, Race 8, 5:36 pm ET
$75,000 Gus Grissom Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, Indiana-breds 3 & Up
The pick here, among the eleven entrants, is 8-Unbridled Beast. His last race was huge: he won a similar state-bred stakes race at Indiana Grand on September 2 by over five lengths, earning a career-best speed figure, by a big margin, in the process.
We tend to be skeptical when horses make these kinds of speed-figure jumps: They can be a fluke, the result of a race setup that is not likely to be repeated. But we think Unbridled Beast’s fig is legit: We think he will run about as well today, even with the relatively short two-week period between races, as he ran in his last. That makes him strictly the horse to beat, and at 3-1, it makes him a very good play. We will bet him to win. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 8, $40 to win on 8-Unbridled Beast.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.