Garrity's Tuesday Stakes offers picks in three quality Kentucky Downs turf races – the TVG, Untapable and Music City
We have three plays today, all in stakes at Kentucky Downs, which today runs the races that were originally scheduled for Sunday. That card was washed away by rain, and though the forecast in Western Kentucky this afternoon is just about perfect -- a high in the low 80s, with low humidity -- the turf course has not dried out fully, and is listed as good for today’s races. Let’s go.
Kentucky Downs, Race 9, 5:32 pm ET
$500,000 TVG Stakes, 1 15/16 miles, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Six older females line up to go a mile and five-sixteenths in the TVG Stakes. The even-money favorite is Graham Motion’s Mrs. Sippy, who is a quality race mare, but we think she’s a play-against, as the race has little pace on paper, and Mrs. Sippy has zero early speed, and Kentucky Downs, during its brief meet, has been unkind to deep closers.
We like 2-Theodora B. She starts for Michael Dickinson, who is very, very skilled at placing horses, and we think this will be an example of that: Theodora B. was cross-entered in the Canadian Stakes at Woodbine this past weekend, and Dickinson scratched her out of that race in favor of this spot. She should be on or near the lead through very slow early fractions, and with the lack of pace, the closers will not be able to catch her. We will bet her to win at 5/2. The bet: Kentucky Downs, Race 9, $40 to win on 1-Theodora B.
Kentucky Downs, Race 10, 6:04 pm ET
$400,000 Untapable Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, Turf, 2-Year-Old Fillies
The Untapable drew a field of eleven juvenile filles. It’s an interesting race to handicap, as a few of them have no turf experience, and the ones who have run on grass have run almost exclusively on firm turf, which they will not get today. It’s a bit of a guessing game which ones will take to the going, but one we think will thrive over it is 2-Taylor’s Tourist, who broke her maiden pretty impressively on the dirt at Ellis Park on August 13. There’s a lot of speed in the field, and we think she can get an ideal trip setting just behind it, and move forward when the pacesetters begin to tire. At 12-1, we think she has a shot, and will play her to win and to place. The bet: Kentucky Downs, Race 10, $35 to win/$10 to place on 2-Taylor’s Tourist.
Kentucky Downs, Race 11, 6:36 pm ET
Music City Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, Turf, 3-Year-Old Fillies
A full field of twelve goes to the gate in the Music City, but we have eyes for only one: 10-Kimari, who starts for trainer Wesley Ward. She scratched out of a stakes race over the weekend for this spot, and we think that was a wise decision, as she should love the soft turf, which should be similar to the going in her last race, when she finished a very good second running against the boys in a Group 1 race at the Royal Ascot meeting. That effort towers over anything any of the other runners here have done, and she’s been training like a fiend in her recent morning workouts, which suggests she is poised for a top effort. She’s 3-1 on the morning line, but will be shorter, perhaps much shorter, at post time; we will bet her to win anyway, as we think she is the likeliest winner of the day. The bet: Kentucky Downs, Race 11, $50 to win on 10-Kimari.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.