Thursday at Kentucky Downs: Garrity picks 2 races — the Dueling Grounds Oaks and the Dueling Grounds Derby
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Thursday at Kentucky Downs: Garrity picks 2 races — the Dueling Grounds Oaks and the Dueling Grounds Derby

First picked race, the 8th at Kentucky Downs, the $500,000 Dueling Grounds Oaks, has a post time of 4:59 pm

We have two good stakes races at Kentucky Downs today, both on grass, and featuring big purses. We expect firm turf in both of them. Let’s go.

Kentucky Downs, Race 8, 4:59 pm ET

$500,000 Dueling Grounds Oaks, 1 5/16 miles, Turf, 3-Year-Old Fillies

A full field of twelve goes here, and we’re going to try to blow up the toteboard with a big long shot: it’s 1-Sursum Corda, who was cross-entered in this race and in allowance race yesterday. We figured that she’d scratch out of the stakes here, as the allowance yesterday was a much softer spot, but trainer Ian Wilkes went the other way around, scratching out of the race yesterday to run here. We think that is a very positive sign, and we think that Sursum Corda may be sitting on a big race at a big price. At 30-1, we will bet her to win and to place, and throw in a small bet on the Double comprising Races 8 and 9 as well. The bets: Kentucky Downs, Race 8, $30 to win/$10 to place on 1-Sursum Corda; $5 Double, 1 (Sursum Corda) with 11 (Bama Breeze).

Kentucky Downs, Race 9, 5:32 pm ET

$750,000 Dueling Grounds Derby, 1 5/16 miles, Turf, 3-Year-Olds

The Dueling Grounds Derby, like the Dueling Grounds Oaks before it, has a full field of twelve, and while the first pass through the past performances may suggest that any one of them could win, we actually think the 3-1 favorite, 11-Bama Breeze, is a pretty strong play: he’s been running in much tougher races, at Churchill Downs, Keeneland, and Saratoga, and we think he can handle this group. Put simply, we think he’s sitting on a big race, and will show late this afternoon that he’s better than the other 11 colts in the starting gate. We will bet him to win. The bet: Kentucky Downs, Race 9, $40 to win on 11-Bama Breeze.

That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.

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