Thursday at Kentucky Downs: Garrity picks 2 races — the Dueling Grounds Oaks and the Dueling Grounds Derby

We have two good stakes races at Kentucky Downs today, both on grass, and featuring big purses. We expect firm turf in both of them. Let’s go.

Kentucky Downs, Race 8, 4:59 pm ET

$500,000 Dueling Grounds Oaks, 1 5/16 miles, Turf, 3-Year-Old Fillies

A full field of twelve goes here, and we’re going to try to blow up the toteboard with a big long shot: it’s 1-Sursum Corda, who was cross-entered in this race and in allowance race yesterday. We figured that she’d scratch out of the stakes here, as the allowance yesterday was a much softer spot, but trainer Ian Wilkes went the other way around, scratching out of the race yesterday to run here. We think that is a very positive sign, and we think that Sursum Corda may be sitting on a big race at a big price. At 30-1, we will bet her to win and to place, and throw in a small bet on the Double comprising Races 8 and 9 as well. The bets: Kentucky Downs, Race 8, $30 to win/$10 to place on 1-Sursum Corda; $5 Double, 1 (Sursum Corda) with 11 (Bama Breeze).

Kentucky Downs, Race 9, 5:32 pm ET

$750,000 Dueling Grounds Derby, 1 5/16 miles, Turf, 3-Year-Olds

The Dueling Grounds Derby, like the Dueling Grounds Oaks before it, has a full field of twelve, and while the first pass through the past performances may suggest that any one of them could win, we actually think the 3-1 favorite, 11-Bama Breeze, is a pretty strong play: he’s been running in much tougher races, at Churchill Downs, Keeneland, and Saratoga, and we think he can handle this group. Put simply, we think he’s sitting on a big race, and will show late this afternoon that he’s better than the other 11 colts in the starting gate. We will bet him to win. The bet: Kentucky Downs, Race 9, $40 to win on 11-Bama Breeze.

That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.