The first picked race, the 7th at Churchill Downs, has a post time of 4:16 pm
The rains have come today: it’s wet at Churchill Downs, all races are off the turf, and the main track is sloppy. The good news is that today is Wednesday, the forecast is better for the rest of the week, and both courses, dirt and turf, should be able to dry out by the weekend.
But today, we have three wet-track plays, in two races, so let’s go.
Seven go in this non-winners-of-two allowance. Two of them are coupled in the wagering, which means that the horse breaking from the inside is actually 2-A Thousand Reasons. She’s the play, and she’s a strong one: she is the quickest horse in the race, and will use that early speed to get out from her rail post. We’d have liked her on a dry track, but in the slop, we like her a lot more, as she’s by Munnings, who has emerged as a premier wet-track sire. We will bet her to win, and will do so enthusiastically. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 7, $50 to win on 2-A Thousand Reasons.
Ten go in this third-level allowance at a mile. Favored 5-My Sixth Sense has the wet-track trifecta: abundant early speed, good recent overall form, and an excellent race record in the slop, tracks, with three career wins in six tries on off tracks. My Sixth Sense can go right for the lead, or he can stalk; either way, we think he wins this. We will bet him to win at 6/5. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 7, $40 to win on 5-My Sixth Sense.
We like both of these picks enough that we are going to go back and play them in the Double comprising Races 7 and 8. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 7, $50 double, 2 (A Thousand Reasons) with 5 (My Sixth Sense).
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.