The first race at Churchill Downs is at 1 pm EDT.
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Churchill Downs today. Weather is overcast and in the mid 80’s.
Many people tweeting about how a horse has never won from the 17th post position in the Kentucky Derby. Watch it happen. After all, this is 2020, the oddest year I have ever lived.
(SmartCap cards at the bottom.)
Race 1 - $10K Claiming race for fillies and mares 3yo+ NW3 or 3yo fillies going 6F
I’m going to side with #4 Proudly Fought (7/2). Claimed by Benjie Larue three back at Ellis, she tried her hand in the last two on turf and whereas she was competitive to start, she didn’t care for the going and faded off. Now, she returns to dirt and CD where she is 1-1 for $13K. I look for a gate to wire win.
Race 2 - $97K Maiden Special Weight for 3yo+ going 1.25 miles
Very simply put, I am going with the jockey at this distance - #3 Leading West (5/2) with Tyler Gafflione. Mike Maker 21% from turf to dirt and has knocked on the door several times.
Race 3 - $30K 2yo Maiden Claimers going 6.5F
Going to take a shot with #4 Southern Will (10/1) who’s sire crushed the field in his first four starts and has many offspring win in their first attempts. His works have been solid of late and you should get a good price in him.
Race 4 – The $115K Champions Day Marathon Overnight Stakes for 4yo+ going 1.5 miles
If I were betting by the numbers, #3 Core Beliefs (5/1) is who I’d side with. However, I am no fan of Joe Talamo in route races and #1 Ry’s The Guy (9/5) is a false favorite given his large Equibase numbers have been accomplished on turf. So, I am going to side with a horse proven at the distance – Sir Winston (8/5). I certainly realize this is a bias opinion because I chose him in last year's Belmont.
Race 5 - $97K Maiden Special Weight for 2yo fillies going one mile on turf
No real feel for this, so I’ll take a shot with jockey James Graham on Ms. Satch Mo at 8/1
Race 6 - $8K Claimers 3yo+ going 6F
Going with the speed and #2 El Asenio (8/5) who has our best last, best overall class and best overall speed. Robertino Diodoro 27% with last out winners and he changed this gelding's style. Smart move to David Cohen who will get the lead, control the pace and pull away late.
Race 7 - $40K Claimers 3yo+ going 9 panels
#8 Prompt (9/2) gets needed class relief today as he has our best last and best class ratings. #9 Harvey Wallbanger (7/2) has an excellent record at CD going 3:1-2-0 for $80.6K or $28K per attempt, and is third off the layoff. #5 Fort Peck (10/1) is coming out of a key race and should be figured into your exotics. I’m going with OJ, Vodka and Galiano.
Back for the last two later
Happy Hunting 😊
My Virtual Stable
PRX 2 – Risque’s Treasure
CD 2 – Leading West
FE 3 – Pastel Emily
Ind 5 – Seeds Of Time
Ind 7 – Gift Wrapped
LaD 4 – Ten Count Out
2nd Lasix Led At Stretch In Last Out
Cby 7 – Tailorbeswift
CD 9 – Mads
TDN 8 – Shez Shacked Up
2nd Lasix Finished 3rd or Better Last Out
BTP 4 – Boo Hawk
Cby 3 – Gabriel’s Legend
CD 2 – Jack Luvs Nova
Ind 1 – My Alimony
Ind 4 – Harbor Court, Shotgun Joe
Ind 6 – Beav’s Boo
Pid 4 – Grand Mamoo, Royal Collection
TDN 8 – Fricka, Sammy’s Sister, Shez All Shacked Up
Trainer 20%+ 1st off claim
PRX 4 – Quality Choice
Longshots From Key Races
1st Lasix & Last Race <30 days Ago Finish No Worse Than 3rd
Mnr 5 – I’m Money
Maiden Claiming 1st Time Starters – Dam Won 1st Out
Ind 1 – Shenandoah Flash (damn never started, sire won first two going away)
AsD 3 – Tia Time
Maiden Win But Was DQ’d