Garrity's first post is at 4:12 pm EDT.
There are three stakes races today: one at Saratoga, and two at Indiana Grand. We’ll play those three, and will note that we expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them. Let’s go.
Saratoga, Race 7, 4:12 pm ET
$85,000 Mahony Stakes, 5 ½ furlongs, Turf, 3-Year-Olds
A very good field of ten sophomore colts lines up for the Mahony, the featured race at Saratoga today. We’re all in on 5/2 second choice 8-Maven: he’s trained by Wesley Ward, who is suddenly hot, having won the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville Racecourse in France on Sunday with Campanelle. Maven is a blazingly fast son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, and we think his outside post is a perfect fit for his running style, as it looks to us like he should go right to the front, and from there run the rest of the field off their feet, winning the Mahony Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion. We will bet him to win. The bet: Saratoga, Race 7, $40 to win on 8-Maven.
Indiana Grand, Race 6, 4:40 pm ET
$100,000 First Lady Stakes, 1 mile 70 yards, Indiana-bred 3-Year-Old FIllies
Seven state-bred fillies line up for the First Lady Stakes, and there’s a very obvious favorite, 2-Copper Nickel, who’s even money on the morning line. We are playing against her, not because there’s anything wrong with her form, but because of price: Her edge on the rest of the field is small, much smaller than what will be reflected on the tote board.
We’re expecting a pace meltdown in this race, as the leading contenders are all speed horses, and we think that will lead to an unsustainably fast pace, and a horse coming from well off the pace. That makes the pick 6-Dontyouremember, who has the kind of late-closing style we like, and who looks poised to move forward after running on the grass in her last start. Look for her to be toward the rear early, and flying late. We will bet her to win and to place at 20-1. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 6, $25 to win/$10 to place on 6-Dontyouremember.
Indiana Grand, Race 8, 5:36 pm ET
$100,000 Governor’s Stakes, 1 mile 70 yards, Indiana-bred 3-Year-Olds
The Governor’s Stakes drew a field of nine state-bred colts. We like the one on the outside, 9-Flatter Hymn. He’s undefeated in two career starts, and while both of them were sprints, they were also against open company at Charles Town, which is very impressive, considering the wins by the other eight runners in the field have been almost exclusively against their fellow Indiana-breds. Both of his starts were in sprints, and he stretches out to a route today, but his pedigree, and his running style in the shorter aces, suggest that he’ll thrive going around two turns. We think that Flatter Hymn appears to have a much higher ceiling than the others, and at 8-1, we think he’s a great play. We will bet him to win. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 8, $40 to win on 9-Flatter Hymn.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.