Wednesday at the track: Garrity picks races at Tampa Bay Downs, Delaware Park, Indiana Grand
July 4 has always been a big deal in the horse racing world. Despite the coronavirus pandemic, this year will be no exception, with over two dozen stakes races, including some big ones, on Saturday alone.
Today is a bit quiet compared to what’s coming, but while we sharpen our handicapping pencils for the holiday weekend, we’ll wet our whistle with three plays this afternoon. It’s an all-dirt lineup today, and we expect a fast track in all races. Let’s go.
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Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8 (3:58 pm ET)
Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs, Dirt, 2-Year-Olds
Baby races this time of year can be very tricky to handicap, but this one looks straightforward to us. First-time starter 3-Powerful Moon is by stallion Malibu Moon, who is good at siring first-out winners, he’s trained by Tim Hamm, who wins with 22% of his debut runners, and his morning workout pattern is just what we like to see, a series of steady, consistent drills with the occasional fast one thrown in. Add it up, and and Powerful Moon is the pick, and a strong one at that. We will bet him to win at 7-2.
Tampa Bay Downs Race 8
$30 to win on 3-Powerful Moon
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Delaware Park Race 8 (4:45 pm ET)
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
We’re going chalky here. The pace and speed figures of 3-2 morning line favorite 1-Break Curfew give her what appears to be an insuperable edge on the other six runners in the field. Look for her to be forwardly placed early, either on the lead or just off it, and to put away the speedsters, and the rest of the field, with a powerful move around the turn and at the top of the stretch. She looks like she’s just a superior animal, so we’ll go back to one of the most basic, and true, axioms in this game − identify the best horse, and bet to win. We will do that here.
Delaware Park Race 8
$50 to win on 1-Break Curfew
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Indiana Grand Race 7 (5:08 pm ET )
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
A couple of the obvious contenders in this second-level allowance in Indiana are speed horses, and are pretty evenly matched in terms of early zip, which means we think they’ll both go too fast, softening each other up by the top of the stretch. We think 5-2 second choice 4-K J’s Nobility will be ideally suited to take advantage. He’s a stalker who should get an ideal trip just behind the pacesetters, and should move past them when they begin to tire. We think he wins this one going away, and will bet him to win at 5-2.
Indiana Grand Race 7
$40 to win on 4-K J’s Nobility
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That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.