Week 4, day 7: First post is 5:04 pm EDT.
For the contest, each handicapper will designate one of his race picks per weekday and two on Saturday and Sunday. Win, place, show betting only. $20 per bet. Weeks run Monday through Sunday.
Play along and in future months you may have a chance to beat the pros.
RT bet $3 to win, $6 to place, $11 to show on 8-Granny Jewell in the 4th race at Lone Star Park. He also bet $7 to win $13 to place on 5-Midnightonthebayou in the 6th at Lone Star Park. Granny was no jewel, finishing out of the money. Midnight, meanwhile said bayou to place money, finishing third. Garrity bet $20 to win on 6-Cazadero in the 8th at Churchill Downs and $20 to win on 5-Crystal Cliffs in the 11th at Churchill Downs. Cazadero was a heavy favorite WINNER and returned $28.00. Crystal Cliffs finished second and was thus first place loser. Heading into the final day, RT is now -$106.40 and Garrity is at +$56.
Belmont Park, Race 8 — The $100,000 Bouwerie Stakes, Post time 5:04 pm EDT, $20 to win on #1 Critical Value.
Lone Star Park, Race 7, Post time 7:07 pm EDT; $20 to win on #2 Little Menace.
Why: The 8th at Belmont is the $100,000 Bouwerie Stakes, a 7-furlong dirt race for New York-bred 3-year-old fillies. 1-Critical Value is a standout: she’s won two of her four career starts, and did not embarrass herself in the other two: she lost her career debut at Saratoga, a maiden race last August, by a nose, and in her last, she finished fourth in the Grade 2 Demoiselle, which was at Aqueduct in December. She comes off a layoff, and cuts back from a route to a sprint, but we just think she’s better than the other five runners here. She’s 6/5 on the morning line, and will likely be shorter at post time; we will bet her to win despite the miserly odds.
Next, the 7th at Lone Star, the Grand Prairie Derby. In it, eight 3-year-olds will go a mile and a sixteenth on the main track, and the standout is 8/5 morning line favorite 2-Little Menace. He appears to be faster than the rest of the field, and though he’s trying something for the first time today, going around two turns after running in five consecutive sprints, his pedigree suggests that he should thrive at the distance. This is another chalky pick, but our last play of the contest will be on Little Menace to win.
Lone Star Park, Race 5, Post time 6:07 pm EDT; $20 to win on #2 Fool's Paradise.
Lone Star Park, Race 8, Post time 7:37 pm EDT; $7 to win, $13 to place on #4 Wind Of Change.
Why: First, Race 5, the Lone Star Park Turf Stakes. #2 Fool’s Paradise (6/1) is rounding into exceptionally good form — she took command of the lead in her last, against similar allowance company, as all of these faced last time. What makes her most interesting, is her final fraction being the same as #3 Curlin’s Journey, yet she wasn’t all out down the stretch. Improvement forthcoming.
Next, Race 8, the Lone Star Mile Stakes. The two I am interested in are #5 Hunka Burning Love (5/1) and #4 Wind Of Change (6/1). #5 is going to win number four in a row and his speed rates up there with this group. He is comfortable on the lead or pressing the pace and team Broberg/Cabrera are more than likely going to see how things unfold along the backside. #4 is really coming into form after three races in the US from Brazil. His front running style and stakes victory overseas gives him the class and speed to wire this group. That's why I'm going with #4 Wind Of Change.