Thursday at the track: Garrity picks races at Indiana Grand and Churchill Downs
We have just two plays today, one at Indiana Grand and one at Churchill Downs. We expect fast dirt and firm turf in both. Let’s go.
Indiana Grand, Race 4, 3:44 pm EDT
Allowance, 1 mile, Turf, Indiana-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
This first-level allowance for state-bred females drew a field of nine. The pick is 2-Babes on a Budget. She is owned and trained by Gary Patrick, who does not run many horses -- his runners have only five starts all year -- but who is a maestro at placing them, with his five 2020 starters winning three times, including a perfect two-for-two at the young Indiana Grand meet. Patrick will not maintain these winning percentages all year, but he knows what he’s doing, and we’ll ride him while he’s hot. Babes on a Budget is coming off a layoff, having last run in November, and switching from dirt to turf, but she did her best running last year on the sod, and we think she can handle this modest group, even coming off the bench. Look for her to be mid-pack early and rolling late. We will bet her to win at 5/2. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 4, $40 to win on 2-Babes on a Budget.
Churchill Downs, Race 8, 4:46 pm EDT
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
Ten go in this tough third-level allowance. We like 3-Mucho, a Bill Mott-trained son of Blame, who just missed in a similar spot in his last start, which was at Gulfstream Park. In an evenly matched field, the difference is going to be pace: there are a couple of horses in here with high early speed, and we think that they will go fast enough early to set the race up for a stalker, which is what Mucho does best. Look for him to be mid-pack early, to advance around the far turn, and to move to the front when the field straightens for home. We will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $40 to win on 3-Mucho.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.