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RT Report 6.20.2020
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194 Days left in the year 😊
Back at again today in Louisville, it is a sunny, summer day and 91̊
$10K Claimers 3yo+ NW3l going 8.5f
After applying Equibase speed and class numbers into SmartCap, we have…
#7 Lagoon Macaroon (6/1) has best overall class, overall speed and co-best last. He also has best races two and three back. Coming off a layoff at the end of May, he put in a very dull effort versus state breds at Gulfstream in a $16K optional claimer. In that race, he ran protected, so this will be the first time he’s gone against claimers since getting snatched up by trainer Robert Hess two back in January. He had a freshening at GP two weeks ago and is dropping in tag today. Hot jock Jesus Castanon (33% last 10 days) is in the irons and the distance fits his late kick.
#1 Roaring Fork (2/1) has co-best last and put in a solid effort at this level in a mile event three weeks ago. Known trainer Peter Miller send him out today and he will take a lot of money. This horse has a real propensity to fade and look for him to take the lead and try to control the pace; however, the distance doesn’t suit him and he won’t hold up.
Contest bet - $7/w $13/p Lagoon Macaroon
$50K Starter Allowance for fillies and mares 3yo+ NWc going 6f
#8 Gold Credit (10/1) has our best overall class, near best overall speed, second best last and best races two and three back. This is exactly the spot where you must watch Phil D’Amato; subtly dropping in class, last effort was dull and very sharp works leading into the next race.
#5 Diamond Crazy (3/1) has our best last, best overall speed and second best overall class. Shipped in from OP, she ran a solid race against tougher company and rallied in the stretch to miss by 1.25 lengths, getting show money. She had a brisk 4f work in :48 flat on 6/12 and appears ready to strike in this. She will have a fast pace to close in on.
#1 Duplicitous (5/2) Tyler Gafflione/Brendan Welsh 24% thus far and this filly is coming off a win versus weaker. Walsh 19% with last time winners and this horse is not going to get my money today, having never raced against older.
#6 Take Charge Erica (12/1) absolutely blistered her last furlong recently in :12.56, she will take the lead for this reason – David Cohen just had another near miss accident and he’ll take his mounts straight to the front. He did this the last time it happened upon return from an injury and he has been doing it again.
My contest bet - $7/w $13/p on Gold Credit
If you are interested in getting more daily evaluations, please email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.