Friday at Churchill Downs: RT picks a pair of races using SmartCap
We’re going back to Churchill Downs today where the weather is sunny and 89°.
Race 4, post time 2:38 pm EDT
$88K Allowance for fillies and mares 3yo+ NWx going 5.5f on turf
#3 Winning Envelope (9/2) has the Equibase/SmartCap best last and near best overall speed. She also has third best overall class and best race three back. Trainer Joe Sharp 26% with Martin Garcia as she comes right back after three weeks and a solid effort closing like a freight train in a 5f, same level race. The extra ½ furlong will bode well for this daughter of Midnight Lute as the middle to outside posts have a slight bias here. This will be her third attempt on grass and her second in a row. She has a solid campaign cooking thus far in 2020 going 4:1-2-0 for $107K or $26.7K per outing, the best of this field.
#6 Morticia (8/5) track leading (24 wins, $1.2M) regular rider Tyler Gafflione back again for this mare out of Mr. Greeley. Second off a long layoff, in her last on May 28th, she set the pace before tiring in the stretch. She is 12:4-2-4 for $362K at this distance and 27:10-7-5 for $1.02M or $38K per race, far exceeding the others in this. As she is rounding into form now, look for her to jump to the lead, set the pace and not let up. She had a nice freshening a week ago going 5f in 1:01 and she has our best overall class and speed.
#5 Miss Gossip (8/1) second best overall class and speed, she bested Morticia in the Smart N Fancy Stakes at Saratoga last year and faced her again in the G3 Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes at Keeneland and was summarily smoked. This 7yo Irish bred mare, like many in this, was taken off the bench for the May 28th race and ran gamely, getting up for show and just missing place. The added distance will be a bonus.
#8 Change Of Control (7/2) won the May 28th race after shipping in from the Fair Grounds and she is 2:2 on CD turf for $112K. In her last, she couldn’t have gotten a better trip with the pace setting up for Colby Hernandez to close the deal in the last furlong of a quick :11.5. She scored an all time Equibase high of 112 and as an 18/1 longshot, a repeat is not eminent.
#1 Mt. Brave (10/1) we’d be remiss to not mention Asmussen/Santana as this Malibu Moon filly tries turf for the first time. Although turf is not in her pedigree, perhaps Asmussen feels like she’s suitable to the surface to stop her from fading in the stretch? Her workouts reflect that, going slow in all six leading up to this. Look for Santana to take a different tact this time and rate her instead of going to the lead.
My Pick: #6 Morticia
Race 8, post time 4:46 pm EDT
$81K Allowance for fillies and mares 3yo+ NWx or NW2l going 7f
#3 Club Car (5/2) has our best overall class, speed, and best races two and three back. Corey Lanerie won on her to break her maiden at 6.5f last fall, she switched riders and he returned to her last out after a six month layoff and ran evenly, getting up for show.
#1 Ocean Breeze (2/1) absolutely crushed the field last out going 6.5f in 1:16.6 to win by eight lengths. She has our second best overall speed and class and second best last. Wayne Catalano 11% class up, 17% with Martin Garcia and 18% with last winners.
#5 Crown Jewel (5/2) did similar in last as Ocean Breeze, blowing away the field by 6.75 to break her maiden hitting a 91 Equibase number. Asmussen/Santana again and depending on how you look at a seven furlong race, as either a sprint or a route, Asmussen is 0-fer in routes at CD after 29 attempts.
My Pick: #3 Club Car $7/w $13/p for the contest. Speaking with a mentee yesterday during Ascot, there was a 6/5 favorite in one of those mongo sized fields. The favorite was going for it’s third race ever and it won two in a row previously. I explained that rarely do horses improve in their third attempt and certainly not in the manner as they did between race one and race two. Sure enough, it ended up way back.
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