Week 3, day 3: First post is 3:07 pm EDT
For the contest, each handicapper will designate one of his race picks per weekday and two on Saturday and Sunday. Win, place, show betting only. $20 per bet. Weeks run Monday through Sunday.
Play along and in future months you may have a chance to beat the pros.
RT bet $7 win, $13 place on 1-Goodnightloving in the 7th race at Lone Star Park. The horse finished third, saying good night to RT's money. Garrity put $10 to win, $10 to place on 2-Distorted Flash in the 8th at Lone Star. That $20 was gone in a flash as the horse finished out of the money. Both RT and Garrity start off the week -$40.
The Pick: Race 2, Lone Star Park, $7 to win, $13 to place on #5 Rikki’s Gift, post time 3:07 pm EDT
Why: Rikki’s Gift (8/1) has second best overall speed and class along with co-best last two cumulatively. This is her second race in sixteen days and in her last, on dirt, she showed some spring before letting up. It’s her second off a layoff and a drop in class. Her siblings have all done well on turf and her mamma was 15:5-3-2 for $543K on the surface.
For RT's full SmartCap analysis on this race and others at Lone Star Park, please check out his post here.
The Pick: Race 9, Gulfstream Park, $20 to win on #6 Quenane, post time 4:13 pm EDT
Why: This is an allowance/optional claimer in South Florida that will be run at a mile on the main track. Because there’s only one turn in mile races at Gulfstream -- it’s one of only a handful of tracks in the country where mile dirt races are run around one, rather than two, turns - the early pace tends to be faster than it is elsewhere. We’re expecting a very fast pace here, which will set the table for 6 - Quenane, a come-from-behinder. His last race was bad, but we’re drawing a line through it, as it was run in the slop; his three races prior to that were all good and include a win in a minor stakes race. He’s fit, he appears to be sound, and we think the race shape will favor is running style. Look for him to be flying late: we will bet Quenane to win