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RT Report 6.13.20
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201 Days Left In The Year 😊
Managed to eke out a minor profit as Hidden Ruler should have been dq’d in the seventh yesterday and didn’t. The place money paid $4.20, giving a $27.30 payoff on a $20 bet. As an aside, I liked #1 Admire in race four and tweeted that there is no way I am betting this horse because Cold Joe Talamo was assigned the mount and not Martin Garcia. The man was 1-77 and what does he do? Wires the field. Like Michelob – some days are better than others.
86 degrees and sunny in Louisville today as we are going to look at the eighth and tenth races at Churchill Downs.
5.5f Turf Sprint for $62.5K Optional Claiming fillies and mares, 3yo+ NWx or NW3
After inputting Equibase speed and class figures in SmartCap, we have the following –
#3 Reenie D (12/1) has co-best last, best last two by raw cumulative score, a top money earner at $11.7K per race/lifetime, and a recent trip on the track. Look for James Graham, who has ridden this filly out of Giant’s Causeway its last two consecutive races, will probably have learned to hold her somewhat back from her proclivity to be forward in the pace. She is second off a layoff and the maturity of the November race two back to her race at the end of May will make her a dangerous prop.
#12 She’s All Skeet (10/1) has near best overall speed, $230K in earnings at $12K per race and $14K per race on grass. Trainer Andrew McKeever 33% on turf. Shipping in from The Fair Grounds, she has had several solid works. Unfortunately, she hasn’t found the finish line since way back in September of 2018.
#13 Lady Worthington (8/1) on AE, has co-best overall speed. Coming off a big win at Turfway, she has been breezing well since February. Wesley Ward/Gerardo Corrales a big 40% together with 53 wins. Ward is also 21% off 2-6 months, 22% overall and 26% going from dirt to turf (although Turfway is synthetic). She is going to be overlooked if she gets in and it can be a betting opportunity.
#4 VJ’s Bet (10/1) has second best overall speed and best overall class. She is 3:0-1-0 at CD, is 13:1-4-2 on turf with $95K in earnings and is lifetime $160K in earnings. Recent trip over the track and hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione aboard. Gaffalione put on a clinic in the last four yesterday getting a place in the 6th and reeling off three in a row to close out the card. The last race was the first for both Gaffalione and trainer Brendan Walsh. She put in a decent middle move and that race appears to be more of a “show us what you got” type. In this, a very open race, she is one to put in your exotic bets.
#5 Hidden Facts (3/1) has co-best overall speed (if #13 is ineligible, she’s first), second best overall class, best last and best race two back. The perpetrator of the DQ in her last, she had a ton of run in the stretch and pinched a horse back. This is the horse to beat as she’s in great form and switches to Julien Leparoux who has won on her before.
#2 Dance Rhythms (8/1) has very close to best overall speed and second best last. Was also affected by the DQ mentioned before and Rafael Bejarano gets a second look. This filly has a 25% win rate and can be a factor.
#1 Dixieincandyland (9/2) has second best speed and second best last. After a two month break, she was shipped here and raced two weeks ago where she was bothered at the 1/8 pole and placed fourth from fifth via the famous last DQ. Jockey switch to Corey Lanerie is a positive move and she is top earner this year at $36.3K/$12.1K per race. Eddie Kenneally 26% on turf and 13% with Lanerie. Late kicker/presser/closing type has a shot in this with the rail bias in turf sprints being strong.
#10 Even Beat (8/1) has second best last race, highest earnings at $240K/$12K per race, is 3:1-1-1 on CD turf for $80.8K per race and towers above the rest here at $27K per time out. Joe Talamo again. I’ll pass.
#8 Royal Priority (50/1) put on turf at Fair Grounds last out and torched the field in 1:04.1. That time is the best of this group and you wonder if this is for real or an outlier. At 50/1 it’s worth the price of admission.
My pick – since our contest does not have exotic bets, I am going to take a shot with #4 VJ's Bet - $7/w $13/p
$75K Optional Claimers 3yo fillies NWx or NW2 going 6.5f
#2 Figure Of Speech (7/2) has best overall class, best last two cumulatively and second best last. Chad Brown/Gaffalione 36% wins. This guy is going to take a lot of money as this guy had the mo going until having to be steadied after lugging in last out in the G3 Spinaway at Saratoga. Solid works of late.
#1 Miss T Too (3/1) has best overall speed and second best last. She has three races this year and is in top form
#8 Recoded (8/1) has second best overall speed and class. This gal may fool a few today with her late kick.
#10 She Can’t Sing (4/1) has best last, a great late kick and Gabriel Saez back in the irons. She will enjoy todays’ cutback and given Churchill’s long stretch, she has a punchers chance to close the deal.
My Pick - $7/w $13/p on #1 Miss T Too.