First pick post time is 5:45 pm EDT
Crazy day with the picks yesterday. The first choice in Race 7, Aqwaam, was dq’d and taken down to second and frankly, it did not look flagrant enough. The contest pick, Beta Lake, in the ninth, got out of the gate well and couldn’t hold the lead. As suspected, the overarching favorite, Tigerbeach, fared poorly and maintains his record of not winning his first race after shipping. At the risk of sounding smug and condescending, a good lesson learned is to dive deep and see if there’s a weakness to exploit.
Today is an allowance at Lone Star Park and a stakes at Assiniboia Downs.
$39K Allowance for 3yo+ going 6f
Using Equibase speed and class numbers thru SmartCap, we came up with these:
#2 Lasting Legacy (6/5) has best overall speed, class, best last and best cumulative last two. He is 10:5-1-0 lifetime and my trepidation is he comes from juiceman Jason Servis. However, he has been working well of late and maybe tuning up from stakes racing in an allowance is the smart move. Brett Calhoun is 19% with horses off the bench and 30% with class down.
#4 Welder (8/5) the lone millionaire of this group, he comes from the red hot barn of Theresa Sue Luneack (40% last 30, 70% with David Cabrera). However, as noted in previous articles, every horse that returned from Welders’ last race has dogged it. I’ll pass.
#6 Hunka Burning Love (6/1) has a greater than average chance to wire this field. He looks like a new guy after being claimed by Broberg.
My pick: I am going to take a shot with Hunka Burning Love in our contest $7/w $13/p.
The $25K La Verendrye Stakes
3yo fillies and mares NWx going 6f
My pick: I am going with the #2 Smart Fix (5/1).
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