Today we’re heading back to Lone Star Park for a pair of allowance races. First post time is 5:45 pm EDT.
Yesterday we went one for two as Stewart Elliott took Code Runner back in hand during the stretch run, swung him along the rail and won it going away. It was a brilliant ride. Jade green with greed and madly licking my lips, I put a load on him at 15/1 first thing in the morning. By the time I logged in to watch the race, he was bet down to 5/1 – still a good payoff and a jump start to this weeks’ contest.
Today we’re heading back to Lone Star Park for a pair of allowance races.
$35K Allowance for 3yo+ NWx or NW2 going one mile
If you owned two horses that were entered in the same race as the 1 and 1a in this one, would you care how the race unfolded as long as you won? Of course not. Interestingly, the owner of these two is a guy named Mike Sisk who owns a chain of low testosterone clinics for men around the DFW area. Could they be? Hmmmm. Of course, if you ask the horseplayers of Twitterverse who the juicers are, they’ll point to everyone who is winning.
This race has 1) Aqwaam and 1a) Starship Zeus which both have different running styles and that could be the setup. Aqwaam is the speed and Starship Zeus is the closer. They are 8/5 on the morning line and you can expect them to take more cash. SmartCap has them both rated with stellar numbers and Aqwaam is having a better 2020 with a 4:1-1-1 record for 43K.
#5 Vice Versa (8/1) has the duo of Jermaine Bridgmohan and Steve Asmussen in this and they’re hitting at 20%. SmartCap has him with second best overall class, near best overall speed and best races two and three back. He is going from sprinting to a route and the change of jockey may pull it off. He has the second best lifetime money per race at $10K and best this year at $11.2K.
#10 Potomac (12/1) has best lifetime money per race at $11K and has gone awry of late, losing his last three by a combined 49 lengths. Asmussen/Elliott hitting at 31% and this will fall into the 69% category.
Although the public will play the duo of Cabrera/Broberg and the #9 Praetorian (3/1), I will not. This son of Tiznow has “seconditis” and has been facing lesser at that.
My pick is the entry if they both go. If both do not go, and the 1 stays, I’m still in.
$35K Allowance for 3yo+ NWx or NW2 going 5 furlongs on turf
#1 Tumbling Sky (3/1) has best overall class, second best last and best race two back. Of course, you expect Asmussen and Elliott to be in this race and here is the chance to bet them. I am skeptical due to no turf races and no pedigree of turf runners. Maybe this is the chance to do the George Patton maneuver of doing the opposite of the obvious?
Well, well, well, we’re back with our buddy Mike Sisk of M & M racing and Broberg/Cabrera on #8 Tigerbeach (7/5). Shipped in from Santa Anita, he is 6:4-1-1 at the distance and 17:5-6-3 on turf with $122K in earnings on the surface. Mid last month, he had a strong 4f gate work and another freshening two weeks ago. Based on my pp’s, if unacclimated to the track, he hasn’t won in his first out when shipping.
#5 Beta Lake (9/2) is 3:2-1-0 on turf, 2:1-0-1 at the distance and is the speed in this. He has second best last race and there is a very strong chance that he can get the lead and run away. Jockey Daniel Benavides and trainer Hector Echeverria are 33% together and Echeverria is 50% when off 2-6 months and 50% at the distance/surface. He recently had a sharp 3f work in :36.6 and this is my pick of the contest. $7/w $13/p.
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