They’re all on dirt, which we’re expecting to be fast. First post is 4:11 pm EDT.
We have three plays today, all from Lone Star Park in Texas. They’re all on dirt, which we’re expecting to be fast. Let’s go.
$15,000 Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
A field of nine goes in this hard-knocking claiming dirt sprint. Two of them are coupled in the wagering due to common ownership, leaving eight betting interests. The entry is the 7/5 morning line favorite, presumably because of the presence of 1-Wrath, who got a big figure winning an $8,000 claimer at Oaklawn Park last out. We are against Wrath here, because he got a marshmallow-soft trip in the win at Oaklawn, setting the pace with very slow fractions on a racing surface that was favoring speed, and is unlikely to get as advantageous a setup this time.
We like the horse on the outside, the wonderfully named 8-Gambler. He’s a Karl Broberg trainee who won at this $15k level two back, stepped up to allowance company off that win, where he finished a competitive third. Back at the level where he probably belongs, we think he’s going to win, and his outside post position is ideal for his stalking running style. We will bet him to win at 2-1. The bet: Lone Star Park, Race 4, $40 to win on 8-Gambler.
Maiden Special Weight, 4 ½ furlongs, Dirt, Texas-bred 2-year-old Fillies
Eight state-bred juvenile fillies line up for this maiden dash. 5-Great Affection is the even-money favorite, mostly due to being trained by Steve Asmussen, but we are not overly impressed with either his breeding or his recent morning works, and at a short price, we think he’s a play-against.
We like 8-Still of the Night. Like all the entrants, she is unraced, but she has looked like a runner in the morning, putting in some seriously fast works. That should serve her well here, as should her outside post, which is always a tactical advantage in races around one turn, but is even more so here, as all eight are making their first career starts. We think she will get a forwardly placed trip, either on the lead or just off it, and from there the only question is whether she’s good enough. We think she is, so we will bet her to win at 9/2. The bet: Lone Star Park, Race 6, $30 to win on 8-Still of the Night.
Starter Optional Claiming, 1 mile, Dirt, 3 & Up
A full field of ten goes in this mile race. 4-Moment is a strong play: his last race was not good, when he did a speed and fade in a race at Oaklawn Park that was at a level similar to this one, but his five races before that, going all the way back to last October, were all excellent, with speed figures that are a couple of notches superior to what the other runners have earned. We think he can rebound in a big way here, and at 5/2 odds that we think are very enticing. We just think he’s better than the rest of the runners here and will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Lone Star Park, Race 7, $40 to win on 4-Moment.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.
Make sure to check out my pick for the 8th at Lone Star Park in today's contest!