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Thistledown Thursday: RT picks 3 races on opening day using his SmartCap system

First post is 12:50 pm EDT

RT

It’s a good thing that the Permanently Disabled Jockeys fund is winning at our contest, because we have been atrocious. 0-3. Ouch.

Today is the opening of Thistledown in Cleveland, Ohio.

Race 1 – Post time 12:50 pm EDT

$5K claimer going 5.5f for Fillies and Mares, 3yo+ NWx

SmartCap has a hodgepodge of results, so let’s dig in.

#4 Sealed With A Kiss (9/2) has best overall speed and class, best third race back and $109K in earnings. Her jockey, Augustin Bracho, is 25% this year and the trainer is 100% (albeit 1-1) and is 10% brining horses off a layoff of 2-6 months. She gets a class drop today, had trouble her second and third races back and had a couple of freshenings’ since. The change may do her good.

#8 Arch Legacy (6/1) has Luis Quinones scheduled to ride and it hasn’t been announced who will take his place today. Luis suffered a broken pelvis and hip at Mountaineer on Tuesday night and is scheduled for surgery today. Keep a kind thought for a successful surgery. This daughter of Archarcharch has solid front end talent, close second in overall class and speed and best race two back. In her three starts this year, she has hit the board twice. Her trainer, Elliott Sullivan, is 33% off the claim and she had a solid workout of 1:01.4 for five furlongs. She’ll be one tough customer today.

#10 Three Illusions (4/1) has near best last, best raw cumulative last two races na dis third in overall class and speed. She will vie for the lead and it appears that this distance is not her long suit.

#11 K’s Machen Em (8/1) the interesting one…six races three wins and one place for $5.3K per time out, the best in this field. She has best last, a class drop and has proven effective after a layoff. She too, has the front end speed to make this more interesting.

My pick - #8 Arch Legacy

Race 2

$7.5K Ohio Bred claimers 3yo+ NWx or NW3 going 6f

#1 Furtherinstruction (3/1) is 2-2 for his career and gets blinkers off today. Trainer Michael Rone is 40% with horses off a layoff and he has our second best numbers.

#8 Charlee’s Magic (8/1) is another Michael Rone trainee and he has best overall speed, class and best last (notwithstanding the very last one where the rider pulled up and walked off). Has solid stats at the track and a steady diet of workouts since February. This is the only horse in this race that has faced NW3 and I believe the class will make the difference.

My pick 8 Charlee’s Magic

Race 4

$21.5K Allowance for fillies and mares 3yo+ NW2 going 5f

#4 Never Forget Her (8/1) absolutely crushed the field by twelve lengths her first and only time out. Gets second Lasix today and if she improves from her 74 Equibase number, like most horses do in their second outing, she’ll get this done. Although #8 Willoughby Gap (3/1) has our best overall speed, class and all his last races, his best races were at Presque, a synthetic surface and typically that surface doesn’t translate well to dirt.

My pick is #4 for both the record here and the contest. $20 to win

Follow me @RtsSpot for more.

If you are interested in getting more daily evaluations, please email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

SmartCap analysis of the 1st at Thistledown on 6/4/2020
SmartCap analysis of the 1st at Thistledown on 6/4/2020 RT
SmartCap analysis of the 2nd at Thistledown on 6/4/2020
SmartCap analysis of the 2nd at Thistledown on 6/4/2020 RT
SmartCap analysis of the 4th at Thistledown on 6/4/2020
SmartCap analysis of the 4th at Thistledown on 6/4/2020 RT
Explanation on how to read SmartCap
Explanation on how to read SmartCap RT
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