Tom Williams blows loose grass in the Winners Circle at Churchill Downs, Wednesday, April 22, 2020, in Louisville, Ky.
Tom Williams blows loose grass in the Winners Circle at Churchill Downs, Wednesday, April 22, 2020, in Louisville, Ky.|Darron Cummings | Associated Press
Thoroughbreds

RT and SmartCap pick Sunday's 1st and 2nd races at Churchill Downs

Post time is 1 pm EDT.

RT

The bank is at $469 bet, $505.10 returned for a +4.77% roi

Today is Churchill Downs daily double. The weather is going to be a perfect spring day with sunny skies and 70˚at post time.

Race 1 - $50K Claiming for4yo+ fillies and mares that are NWx going seven furlongs

After employing Equibase speed and class numbers, SmartCap has come up with #7 Skamania (2/1) as the best overall speed, class and best last. Additionally, she has best race three back and best cumulative last two. Her trainer, Albert Stall, is 145 with horses returning after 2-6 months and she is a lover of CD going 5:2-0-0 for $56K. There are three negative considerations for this entry 1) she is dropping from a $100K tag to $50K, a steep drop. 2) this is not her ideal distance 3) her jockey, Joe Talamo is a piss poor 53:1-6-7

#6 Figure It Out (7/2) has second best overall speed and class, best race two back and has Martin Garcia in the irons, who is 21% the last ten days. She started the year on an excellent foot going 2:1-1-0 for $56K. The connections moved this granddaughter of Indian Charlie out of Michelle Nevins’ barn to Joe Sharp, who is a marginal 4% with horses off 2-6 months. She had a work over CD’s training track and this will be her first race outside of New York. She is getting a cut back in distance and has a commanding front running style that prove too much for this gang.

These are the only two contenders at this level that are worth the bet. #4 Diamond Crazy (5/2) and #1 Miz Shelton (8/1) both come out of Fair Grounds where shippers from that track have fared poorly. However, Miz Shelton changes back to Julien Leparoux who won with her at this track and at this level back in November, so she is worth and exotic wager. #5 Shesomajestic (7/2) has put up excellent numbers at Zia and Sun and those shippers have not been effective at CD. If you want to throw one into the mix for your tri or superfecta(s), go for #2 Straightouttapopcorn (12/1) who is coming off a win and has a strong late kick.

I am going with the front runner, Figure It Out

Race 2 - $10K Starter Optional Claimers for 4yo+ NWx going seven furlongs

SmartCap has overwhelmingly produced #1 Strong Yen (5/2) with the best overall speed, overall class, as well as the best last three races back. That is what I am going to stand on. I am also, as a side wager for myself and not officially here, going to add #7 Hansens Outlook (8/1) in a trifecta or super. There has been something about Mahoning Valley shippers, around the various tracks that have been open, that have made them better elsewhere. My guess is the surface at MVR is like running in chronic mud and now they hit a fast strip?

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If you are interested in getting more daily evaluations, please email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

SmartCap analysis of the 1st at Churchill Downs on 5/31/2020
SmartCap analysis of the 1st at Churchill Downs on 5/31/2020RT
SmartCap analysis of the 2nd at Churchill Downs on 5/31/2020
SmartCap analysis of the 2nd at Churchill Downs on 5/31/2020RT
Explanation on how to read SmartCap
Explanation on how to read SmartCapRT
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