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Thoroughbreds

Tampa Bay Downs picks from RT this Wednesday: Races 3 & 5 with the help of the SmartCap system

The weather should be nice, hot, 89° — first post is 2 pm EDT.

RT

Yesterday, we went 3:2-1-0 with Music At Work smoking the stretch in The Liz’s Pride Overnight Stakes at Assiniboia Downs. Man Camp finished second at Fonner and Retrofit got the job done there for us.

Crazy enough, if you would have bet $36 on the six races at Assiniboia that I selected last night, that is $2/w and $4/p, you would have returned $115.20.

Through yesterday, there has been $445.00 bet and $491.10 returned for an roi of +10.36% roi

Today, we have two turf races at Tampa Bay Downs. The weather should be nice, hot, 89°.

Race 3 - 2:00pm EDT

$25K Claimers that are 3yo+, NW2 going one mile on turf

#7 Drillomatic (5/2) has near best overall class and best overall speed. Trainer Darien Rodriguez hitting 15% winners the past thirty days, 18% from turf to dirt and 35% in claiming races. This gelding is 4: 0-3-2 on Tampa turf and 7:0-3-2 overall on turf. There is no drop in class for him in his past five and I wouldn’t lay a short price here.

#5 Fly Nightly (3/1) has near best overall speed and class, second best last and best race three back. His Tampa turf record is 4:1-1-1 for $10.5K is the best average of this group and trainer Michael Stidham is 19% with horses off 1-2 months. Has had four freshenings since the layoff including a bullet 4f work in :48 flat.

#4 Dizzy Sight (5/1) has Equibase/SmartCap has best overall class and best last and well as best race three back. This will be his third race off a layoff and third off the claim. Second leading rider Antonio Gallardo in the irons. Twirling Candy, this geldings’ sire, was 2-2 on the turf, yet the switch from GP to Tam may prove the difference, given the architecture of Gulfstreams’ turf course. It’s akin to driving a golf ball on a Phoenix course versus one in New Jersey; fast versus slower.

#8 Lion Charmer (6/1) has near best overall speed, second best class and last race, and third best overall class. Both sire and dam of this son of Animal Kingdom have excellent turf pedigrees and this will be his third time versus Nw2 after breaking his maiden here in early March. Jockey Wilmer Garcia has had a nice run of late getting 17% winners the past ten days.

Other mentionables are #2 Driftwood (30/1) has best cumulative last two races, recently gelded, second off the layoff and the sire, Storm Cat, was 13:6-2-2 for $1.15M on the turf – certainly one for an exotic today. #10 Gate Crew is trying for his second time on turf today and has a decent turf pedigree.

My pick is #4 Dizzy Sight. He has $8K per race, double what the rest have done, and Gallardo is 20% on turf and 21% in routes.

Race 5 – 3:00pm EDT

$75K Optional Claimer for fillies and mares 3yo’s+ NWx or NW2 going one mile on turf

#4 Joyous Times (8/1) has best overall speed, second best last two cumulative and by a wide margin, best races two and three back. Daniel Centeno up and he is 18% on turf and 23% in routes. She had a freshening on 5/23 and is out of Kitten’s Joy, a Breeders Cup turf champion who amassed $2.1M on turf.

#3 Real Doozie (3/1) has best last, best overall speed and best last two cumulatively. Antonio Gallardo takes over today and look for them to try wiring the field.

#1 Queen’s Embrace (2/1) is looking for her fifth win in a row and she has our best race two back. Trainer Kathleen O’Connell is 22% with last out winners and this gal has terrific late kick.

My pick is #4 Joyous Times. Coming back after three weeks and getting a work in between, along with the best class of this group works. Most importantly, she is the only entry in this who is not in for a tag.

Follow me @RtsSpot for more.

If you are interested in getting more daily evaluations, please email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

SmartCap analysis of the 5th at Tampa Bay Downs on 5/27/2020
SmartCap analysis of the 5th at Tampa Bay Downs on 5/27/2020 RT
SmartCap analysis of the 5th at Tampa Bay Downs on 5/27/2020
SmartCap analysis of the 5th at Tampa Bay Downs on 5/27/2020 RT
Explanation on how to read SmartCap
Explanation on how to read SmartCap RT
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