Horse Racing at Assiniboia Downs
Horse Racing at Assiniboia Downs|@AssiniboiaDowns on Twitter

Tuesday picks from Fonner Park, and races 1-6 at Assiniboia Downs, including Liz’s Pride Overnight Stakes — courtesy of RT using SmartCap

This is Fonner Park's last three days of racing. First post time is 5:27 pm EDT.


Yesterday we ended up with place-itis, yet turned a mild profit of $3.60 on $12 bet. If you have been following on Twitter, you would have gotten another free pick in the 5th of Croatian, who wired the field and paid $33.00 & $12.60.

To date, we have bet $419 and returned $443.90 for an roi of +5.91%.

Today we have two races from Fonner and the opening stakes race from Assiniboia. This is Fonners’ last three days of racing and the leaders of this meet are:

  • For the jockeys, Armando Martinez is crushing everyone with 65 wins, Jake Olesiak is next with 51, Dakota Wood is third with 43. Latecomer Francisco Arrieta is up there in win % with 23.

  • For trainers, Isai Gonzalez has 36 wins, Kelli Martinez has 34 (with a 31% win rate) and David Anderson has 27.

  • Of note is Shelby Sola, who has a horse in the first race, with 25% winners and Terrell Hemmer, who has entries in the seventh and ninth today, with 29%.

Fonner Park, in Grand Island, NE is predicted to have some rain early in the afternoon and clearing up with a high of 67, while Assiniboia, in Winnipeg, Manitoba, should be clear and 60’s at post time.

Fonner Park Race 2 — post time 5:27 pm EDT

$5K Starter Allowance for 3yo’s+ who have started for a claiming price of $5K in the past year, or Nebraska breds whom have started for $6.5K. 4 furlongs.

SmartCap/Equibase has #2 Man Camp (4/1) has best overall class and speed, best races two and three back and next best last. He has arrived here on 4/15 and won a $10K aoc, NW4l at this four furlong distance. He then tried this level last out and summarily dumped. He gets a positive jockey change to Freddy Manrrique and together, with trainer Iasi Martinez, they’re nailing 32% winners. For the year, this Louisiana bred has gone 5: 2-2-0 for $31K or $6.2K per race, which far exceeds the field.

#5 Knight Disruptor (7/2) is coming off a solid win on 5/12 in a $10K aoc and put up a career best 94 Equibase figure. He has our best last, second best overall speed and class and the Martinez connections of Kelli and Armando (32%). Candidly, I am always weary of next out starters who have set an all time best in numbers for their last.

#1 Retrofit (2/1) is 8:4-2-0 at Fonner and has won his last two – a $3.5K claimer and a $5K claimer. The connections have made a trainer change to Isai Gonzalez and a jockey change to Dakota Wood.

#3 Free Music (3/1) gets the switch to Francisco Arrieta and if he goes off at odds higher than this, use this horse in your exotic wager(s). This jockey must have a timer in his head because he is adept at letting his horse out at the exact right time.

My Pick - #2 Man Camp – gets back to his distance and third off a layoff as well as third race at the track.

Fonner Park Race 3 — post time 5:54 pm

$5K Starter Allowance for 3yo’s+ who have started for a claiming price of $5K in the past year, or Nebraska breds whom have started for $6.5K. 6 furlongs.

#2 Bigshot Lacewell (7/2) has best cumulative last two, best last, near best overall class and a distant overall best speed. Bugboy Tara Hynes is in the irons and she has struggled of late. Today, this horse gets a three pound weight break and whereas he may not get up for the win, he is one to use elsewhere.

#4 Warrior’s Liability (5/2) will take a lot of money in this and is going for its fourth win in a row. He has very near best overall speed and class, best last and 4: 3-0-1 record at Fonner. Kelli Martinez is tough in this role with a 32% record of last time winners. He has gone from stakes, to allowance, to starter allowances where he has found his groove.

#5 Out Of Patience (6/1) has best last, near best overall speed and second best overall class. Trainer Marvin Johnson is 32% of late and this guy has outstanding late kick. (editor: scratched)

#1 Bandwith (6/1) has our best overall class and speed, third best last race and best race two back. His performance of two back will be enough to win this and the positive jockey switch to Arrieta is what’s needed.

My Pick - #1 Bandwith

Assiniboia Downs Race 1 — post time 8:35 pm EDT

The $16K Liz’s Pride Overnight Stakes

3yo fillies going 5f

Synopsis: #4 Someone Else (2/1) broke her maiden on first asking LAST July and is out for the second time. She scored a 68 Equibase number and with improvement, she should get this one. Unfortunately, her trainer has a 0% win record coming off 6 months, so she may just need this race. However, she will not be without competition as #6 Edge Of Okotoks (4/1) is coming back from a stakes race and has been working forwardly. Again, this trainer is lame with layoffs, another 0%. #1 That Luvin Feelin (6/1) has worked briskly since 4/23, has a trainer that is 33% with 6 month layoffs, 56% coming off a win and 41% in stakes.

#3 Nola’s Sugarplum (15/1) and #7 Witts Data Link (10/1) are both Fonner shippers with last out winners and have been campaigning all year. They may be in the best racing shape. I’m going with #5 Music At Work (7/1) who has posted 5f works in 1:10.2, 1:00.8 and :58.4, plus a 4f in :47.4. She comes out of the sire Cape Canaveral who was a stone cold sprinter and has our best overall class and speed.

Opinions of the rest at Assiniboia Downs:

Race 2 — $5K Maiden Claimer and a certain pass. If I were going to bet this, I’d go with the Houston shipper #5 Mommy Witt (8/1)

Race 3 — $5K Maiden Claimer and another pass. Again, if I were to bet it, I’d go with #7 EZ Samurai (6/1)

Race 4 — $2.5K claimers F&M’s, NWx, going 5f. #5 Eye Catching (15/1) has a 28% track win record and 2.5X as much per race as the rest.

Race 5 — $5K Claiming F&M’s 3yo+ NW3 going 5f. #3 Razzlemedazzle (3/1) should get this one with a trainer that is solid off a layoff (25%), bets last, speed and class. #8 Witt’s Gato (5/2) is the one to fear because of her class drop and recent races shape.

Race 6 — $5K Claimers for 3yo’s +. There’ll be a speed duel in this and #7 Lucky Benny (15/1) will come off the pace and take it.

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SmartCap evaluation of the 2nd at Fonner Park on 5/26/2020
SmartCap evaluation of the 2nd at Fonner Park on 5/26/2020 RT
SmartCap evaluation of the 3rd at Fonner Park on 5/26/2020
SmartCap evaluation of the 3rd at Fonner Park on 5/26/2020
Explanation on how to read SmartCap
Explanation on how to read SmartCap RT
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