In this May 2, 2015, file photo, Victor Espinoza rides American Pharoah to victory in the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby horse race at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. American Pharaoh went on to win the Triple Crown a few weeks later. More than a dozen thoroughbreds had come up a race short of becoming racing’s first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, until American Pharoah ended the 37-year drought in 2015.
In this May 2, 2015, file photo, Victor Espinoza rides American Pharoah to victory in the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby horse race at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. American Pharaoh went on to win the Triple Crown a few weeks later. More than a dozen thoroughbreds had come up a race short of becoming racing’s first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, until American Pharoah ended the 37-year drought in 2015.|David J. Phillip | Associated Press
Thoroughbreds

Monday at Churchill Downs: RT picks 2 races with the help of the SmartCap system

There are isolated thunderstorms predicted around 2 pm, so we may get both of these in before that. Hot and 87°. First picked post is 1:30pm EDT.

RT

Yesterdays’ first pick was a long shot that was long forgotten. The tenth race, we had Almithmaar who corralled Pete’s Play Call in late stretch to take it. He paid $16.40 and $8.20, giving us $32.80 on $12 bet.

To date, $407.00 bet, $428.30 returned, making a +5.23% roi.

Today, we are heading back to Churchill for the second and third races. There are isolated thunderstorms predicted around 2:00pm, so we may get both of these in before that. Hot and 87°.

Race 2 1:30pm EDT

$100K Optional Claimer for 3yo Fillies, NW2 going 6f

Crunching Equibase numbers through SmartCap, we came up with a resounding best overall class, best overall speed and best last in #4 Frank’s Rockette (6/5). Of course, the first inclination is to find a way to beat her and this may be tough - $51K per race earned, the nearest is #23.5K, 1-1 at CD for $55K, 6:2-4-0 overall record, four recent brisk works, and second look for the jockey.

A potential shot in this is #1 Turtle Trax (6/1). She has our next best overall speed and class numbers, second best last race and returns to a distance that she wants. This daughter of Cairo Prince has a plethora of ½ siblings who have excelled at this distance and if Julien Leparoux can hold her back from the pace, he’ll have a shot in the stretch.

#7 Specially (2/1) is second in the ml odds and has an excellent late kick. In her last, The Dixie Belle Stakes at OP on February 15th, she broke poorly, rushed to contention, then ran out of real estate to get up for second. The winner, Ring Leader, came back three weeks later and put out a very dull effort when lifted in class. That could be from the previous race being not that competitive or Ring Leaders’ win took a toll on her. Trainer Mark Casse is marginal in this spot getting 10% winners off 2-6 months and 17% in allowance races.

I am going to bet #1 Turtle Trax in this. I think that Franks Rockette will try to wire the field and she’ll be pressed by 3-5-7 and will tire, allowing Turtle Trax to close the race.

Race 3 2:00pm EDT

$50K Claiming 4yo’s+ NWx. 6.5f

#2 Do Share (7/2) has our best overall class and speed, bets race two bac and three back. This Candy Ride gelding is best in money, $22K per race, and best in money at CD, $31K per race. His last race was FUBAR getting bumped badly and immediately taking him out of contention. He’s had three solid works since and looking to take advantage of this class drop.

#8 Nero (9/2) will take a lot of money due to his connections of Asmussen/Santana. He has best overall speed and second best overall class. Son of Pioneer Of The Nile is 5:0-1-1 for the year and losing can be a habit as much as winning. Pass.

#3 C Z Rocket (3/1) is first off the claim for Peter Miller where he is 27%. According to Equibase, he gets a positive jockey change from Calvin Borel to Paco Lopez. Frankly, I have yet to witness Paco Lopez be that great outside of Tampa.

#5 Colonel Klink (10/1) is one to use in your exotic wagers. Horses that post a zero in their last typically come back with a vengeance. This front runner has James Graham in the irons and a punchers chance to wire the field.

I am going with the SmartCap numbers and #2 Do Share.

Explanation on how to read SmartCap
Explanation on how to read SmartCap RT
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