RT spends Sunday at Churchill Downs and picks 2 races with the help of the SmartCap system
Yesterday Smart Time got up in the stretch to give us the win. What started off as 12/1 ended up at 9/2. In the seventh, She’s A Julie broke in the air and couldn’t get on track until later, so a loss in that one. $12 bet yesterday and $21.20 returned.
We are back to par with $395.00 bet and $395.50 returned for a 0.13% roi.
Thus far, Churchill Downs isn’t playing to a heavy bias other than what is normal for them – a 1235-foot-long stretch can make your front runner melt.
Today we are heading back to Louisville for the 8th and 10th races.
Race 8
Post time 4:40pm EDT, weather pushing 90° and scattered storms
$81K Allowance going 6.5f for fillies and mares 3yo+ NWx or NW2
SmartCap with Equibase figures #11 Hallawallah (5/1) as best overall class and an awfully close best overall speed. She also has near best last and near best three back. This Asmussen trainee has been off since November and has been working well. Listening to an interview, Asmussen mentioned that if his horse is working well, he will have his last workout go at 3f just to ensure its “head is in the game.” This Candy Ride filly did that in :38 on May 17th. Route to sprint, Asmussen is 22% and off 6+ months, he is 21%. His main man, and sole rider of her, Ricardo Santana, is up again today. Has a track record of 3: 1-0-0 for $63K
#5 Club Car (9/2) has near best overall speed and class, best last and near best two and three races back. She too, has been off since November and her trainer is 12% bringing back horses over that span. Corey Lanerie up and with trainer Ben Colebrook, they’re a 29% proposition. She too is a lover of CD going 4: 1-1-1 for $89K.
#9 Dos Vinos (6/1) has best overall speed, best race two back and best money per race, $25.7K. She loves CD going 2:1-1-0 for $72K. Trainer Brett Calhoun is 22% with long layoffs and her workouts have been increasingly improving.
#6 Wicked Smart (5/1) just broke her maiden in a $45K MSW at FG and Tom Amoss is 17% with last out winners. She is moving up in class and facing older horses for the first time, and but for having James Graham riding her, she may have been a total pass. Certainly, one to bet in your exotics.
I am going to take a crack at a longshot in this, #2 Centerfold Angel (20/1). With the chance of the track being soft, her synthetic racing experience will come in handy. Additionally, rarely do you get a chance to take a four-year-old carrying the same weight as a three-year-old. She has had two solid races of late, is in shape and could wire this field.
Race 10
Post time 5:44pm EDT
$40K claimers going 6.5f that are 4yo+ NWx
Looks to be a competitive field in this as #3 Almithmaar (5/1) has best overall class, speed and near best last. Trainer Phil D’Amato 27% off 2-6 months and this Tapit gelding is best money with $13.5K per race. Workouts of 4f in :47.8 and 5f in 1:01 show he’s ready and with Florent Geroux up, they’re a 20% tandem.
#9 Holly Blame (15/1) has near best overall speed and second best class, as well as best race two back. Trainer Paolo Lobo is 33% with horses off 6+ months and a sharp bullet work on May 10th, adds to his value.
#5 Pete’s Play Call (5/2) has near best overall speed and class and has just nailed a 4f work in :46.8. Whenever you see this, look for the horse to jump out to the lead. In this race, the extra ½ furlong can make the biggest difference and he may just fade off. Additionally, he is 3:0-0-0 at CD and as the axiom goes, “some horses will run good races over certain tracks, while in the same company under similar conditions on other tracks they will run very disappointingly. Study the likes and dislikes of a horse in regard to tracks.”
#4 Land Battle (8/1) coming off a solid win, he has second best last figures, a 1-1 track record and four outstanding works of late. Trainer Kim Hammond just 4% with horses off 2-6 months, yet that shouldn’t be a deterrent to keep this one out of your exotic bets.
I’m sticking with the numbers SmartCap has provided and taking #3 Almithmaar.
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