SmartCap and RT pick the 6th race Sunday at Gulfstream Park — assuming it's on turf

Will update my record Monday.

Today is the 6th at Gulfstream. This is a pass bet if it is not on the turf. According to Twitterverse, the first race is off the grass, so we shall see.

This is a 1.0625 mile $25K Optional Claimer for fillies and mares that are four years old and are NWx or NW2x. Post time is 3:16 pm EDT.

#10 Hotsy Totsy (5/2) will likely go off as the favorite at post time with Irad, the leading turf jockey in the country. According to SmartCap, she has the best overall speed and class, best last and best last two. She also has the best cumulative last two and has not run since August after shipping in from England. In her last, and only US race, the Riskaverse Stakes at Saratoga, she went off second in the betting, ran wide for the first six furlongs and then tired. Since then, she has been steadily working since the beginning of March and there is nothing in her workouts to signal she’s in razor sharp shape. Trainer Christophe Clement is 21% with horses off 2-6 months and 33% moving them down in class. She will get second time Lasix today and I question whether this will be an “out for air” ride for her. #4 Isla Road (4/1) has second best overall class and speed and last out. She also has best second last race and is coming off an effort to put a line through - this was taken off the grass and in the slop. She went off as the favorite and performed poorly in those conditions. Isla Road has a strong late kick based on her last two turf races where she has come from behind and gotten close to the victory in each. Trainer Ralph Nicks 15% with horses off 2-6 months (her last was February), 24% in class down and 24% with jockey Emisael. Five furlong works since her last race is odd to me. #8 Niko’s Dream is our third best overall class and speed and is second off a five month layoff and today running after six weeks on the bench. I almost passed on her until I looked at the results – 11: 2-4-1 for $173K for $15.7K per outing. Jockey Dylan Davis gets the mount for the second time and her works have been favorable. She is certainly one to include in your exotic bets.

Away from the numbers and trying to find the horse(s) that are in the best shape for today, I found #2 Music Of Life (7/2), third off a layoff and getting hot jock Luis Saez (33: 10-2-3 of late), #3 Scatnap (9/2), third off the layoff and coming off a win in a $40K Starter Allowance, #9 Codrington (10/1) third off a layoff and has had two dull efforts. #7 Katieleigh (15/1) is second off the layoff and will be the one to catch.

My bets – I am going with the money and #8 Niko’s Dream. I believe her back class will show today and she’ll get up for the win.

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Happy Hunting 😊