We aren’t playing any of the grass races; but are expecting them to be rained off the turf, and for the dirt races to be run over a sloppy track. First post is 3:43 pm EDT.
With Tampa Bay Downs dark on Sundays, the only action today is at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida. Unfortunately for the good folks in South Florida, the weather today looks miserable, with heavy rain forecast all day. We aren’t playing any of the grass races; but are expecting them to be rained off the turf, and for the dirt races to be run over a sloppy track. We have four plays in three races; let’s go.
Maiden Special Weight, 7 furlongs, Dirt, Florida-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
This is a pretty nondescript field of eight state-bred maidens, but we like it as a race because there’s a strong wet-track play in it: it’s 5-Jeanie’s Angel, who goes for trainer David Fawkes. She’s a 3-year-old filly who has run only once, when she debuted on April 5, at Gulfstream Park, in a race very similar to this one. We think she’d merit a look on a dry track -- she showed some speed in her lone start, before fading to finish sixth -- but we move her up in a big way in the slop, as she has good wet-track breeding, and her speed-forward running style plays well on off tracks. We think she will probably be shorter than her 6-1 morning line price by post time, but we will bet her to win anyway. We will also play her in the double that comprises races 6 and 7, as the favorite in the 7th, 10-Trev, is a monster over wet going. The bets: Gulfstream Park, Race 6, $25 to win on 5-Jeanie’s Angel; $15 Double, 5 (Jeanie’s Angel) with 10 (Trev).
$50,000 Claiming, 7 furlongs, Dirt, 4 & Up
Seven go in this claiming sprint, and we’re going with another wet-track specialist: 4-Create Again, who comes from the Rasharn Creque barn. Create Again has run well on off going before, with one win in three starts, but what really has us liking his chances is pace: we think he’s going to get the early lead in this race, and we think he may do so without having to extend himself all that much. A horse with an easy lead is dangerous in any race, but is even more dangerous in the slop. We will bet Create Again to win: he’s 10-1 on the morning line, and we think we’ll probably get something in the 5-1 neighborhood. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $35 to win on 4-Create Again.
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 4 & Up
We don’t do sentiment here, which is why we passed on betting 10-Where Paradise Lay back on April 18. He was an all-timer sentimental play that day, as his name comes from a John Prine song (the very great “Paradise”), and the race was just days after Prine died from complications of Covid-19.
The gods, or maybe even the spirit of Prine himself, must have been looking down that day, because the track at Gulfstream came up sloppy, and Where Paraside Lay relished the off going, getting up to win by a neck. He’s going to get a similar setup today, and we expect another win, even though today he starts for a new trainer, Brendan Walsh, who claimed him out of that April 18 race. We like him based on form, not because of the name, but even though we eschew emotion when betting, we will tip our cap to John Prine before the start, and wager that Where Paradise Lay can make it two sloppy wins in a row. We will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 9, $35 to win on 9-Where Paradise Lay.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.