We expect fast dirt at Will Rogers and sloppy going at Fonner. First post is 3:15 pm.
Monday means Fonner Park and Will Rogers Downs. Fonner looks wet, as a big swath of rain is parked over Nebraska on Monday morning, and the races at Fonner will almost certainly be run in the slop. Because of this, we will lean on Will Rogers for most of the today’s plays. We expect fast dirt at Will Rogers and sloppy going at Fonner. Let’s go.
Allowance, 5 ½ furlongs, Dirt, Oklahoma-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Seven go in this first-level allowance for state-bred females. We like 5-Sunday’s Vision. She’s a 3-year-old filly with two career starts who looks to us to be on the improve: she broke her maiden in her first start, at today’s distance, and then stretched out to a mile and jumped up to stakes company, stalking the pace before tiring and finishing 5th. We think that cutting back to a sprint, and dropping from stakes to allowance company, will improve her results. She’ll need further improvement to take this, but we think she is capable of improving, and at 8-1, she is a very square price. Look for her to sit just behind the first flight of horses, and to make a move in midstretch. We will bet her to win. The bet: Will Rogers Downs, Race 3, $30 to win on 5-Sunday’s Vision.
Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Dirt, 3 & Up
This one-mile maiden race drew a field of ten. 2-Instigated is a strong play: he’s a 3-year-old gelding who stands head and shoulders over the rest of the field, both in terms of breeding (he’s by top sire Malibu Moon, out of a Grindstone mare, and sold as a yearling for a hefty $195,000), and in terms of speed figures, where he’s got an edge on the other runners. If we thought we could get his 3-1 morning line price, we might suggest a mammoth win play; since we think his post-time odds will be shorter, probably much shorter, we will be more prudent. We will bet him to win. The bet: Will Rogers Downs, Race 8, $40 to win on 2-Instigated.
Allowance, 1 mile, Dirt, 3 & Up
This first-level allowance will see ten horses go to the post. We like a horse on the outside, 8-Momma’s Baby Boy, who starts for trainer Scott Young. He’s run two good races in a row, and we particularly like his last, when he earned a good speed figure rallying into a slow pace. He finished second that day, and while we think a repeat of that effort should be enough to win here, we actually think he’s going to run better, as this is his third start off a layoff of over a year, and he should be rounding into form quite nicely. Look for him to stalk the leaders, and win going away. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Will Rogers Downs, Race 9, $35 to win on 8-Momma’s Baby Boy.
Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt, Nebraska-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
This one looks easy: 1-Sweet Cowgirl has abundant speed, breeding that suggest she should thrive on a sloppy track, and a coveted inside post position. She’s done speed-and-fade jobs in her last few starts; we expect the wet going to carry her speed the entire 6 ½ furlongs of this race. Look for her to go right to the front, and to stay there all the way around. We will bet her to win at 4-1 -- but only if the track is sloppy. The bet: Fonner Park, Race 4, $35 to win on 1-Sweet Cowgirl.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.