Horse Racing: RT returns with a SmartCap pick for the Wednesday 3rd at Tampa Bay Downs
RT Report for Wednesday, April 15, 2020
I started paying attention again to the races after much urging from friends and clients. Frankly, it makes sense because of the bad actors in the sport that are being vetted. Seemingly, the races are starting to play more fair and one can only reckon this as fear of being caught as well as the solid, honest trainers have come to the forefront and shown their worth. Except for that pick five at Fonner where the “supposed” DQ knocked me out, I haven’t been betting. I have been posting my opinion on Twitter - @rtsspot.
In the interim, my math genius buddy and I made some minor tweaks to SmartCap and it seems to be working.
So, like a bad soap opera, I’m resurrected and back from the abyss.
Tampa Race 3 - $6.25K girl claimers 4yo’s+ going one mile and forty yards
SmartCap has #5 Lady Love (4/1) as best overall class and speed. #1 Blue Chicory (7/2) is second best in class and speed. #8 Blazing Brooke (3/1) is best last, #3 Mamma White Socks (15/1) as best two races back and the same as best three races back.
Looking at the pp’s…
I’ll exclude #3 since she has been beaten by a combined 47 lengths in her last three and her class drop is nice, yet she’s out of form.
#1 is coming off a five-length win and her trainer, Kent Sweezey, is 28% when winning last, yet only 9% when moving up in class. Yes, on paper, this looks like a class down move; however the purse structure is a move up.
#8 has been highly competitive of late – 2nd by 1.5 lengths, a win over similar on a wet fast track and a fourth just 2.75 lengths back against the same. Her form cycle appears ripe.
#5 just missed after bombing the stretch closing down six lengths to place last out against lesser. Her back class, according to SmartCap, is due to her third through fifth races on grass. However, her last out at seven furlongs on dirt speaks to her readiness at this length/conditions.
Who to bet? #5
I believe that between the 7 & 2, they will not let the 1 go the lead so dramatically as her last out and the pace will cause her to fade. I believe the 8 and 5 will be the biggest benefactors and the 5, with that big late kick, will get the job done.